Islamic State Group's Recent Resurgence: An Examination
The Islamic State (IS), once a powerful force controlling large swathes of Syria and Iraq, seems to be staging a comeback. Despite its defeat in Iraq in 2017 and the death of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a US military-led raid in October 2019, IS and its offshoots continue to pose a significant threat across the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
IS began as a breakaway group from al-Qaida over a decade ago, with a more modern and slick approach to radicalization. It enticed people whose daily lives were marked by poverty and misery with the prospect of a better afterlife. This approach, while dangerous, proved effective in recruiting many.
In recent months, IS has conducted offensive attacks primarily in Syria and Iraq, where it controls parts of central Syria including Hama province and substantial areas in northern Iraq, including Kurdish-controlled cities like Kara Tapah. The group has killed more than 200 people in the past three months, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa.
In July, IS-affiliated Lakurawa group militants raided Kwallajiya village in Nigeria, killing several civilians during prayers and displacing families. The so-called IS Mozambique Province (ISMP) conducted several raids against villages in Cabo Delgado and killed more than 60 civilians in different parts of the country in August.
IS affiliates are seemingly operating autonomously and are mostly exploiting existing security weaknesses and underlying conflicts in places like the Sahel. In early September, IS Central Africa Province (ISCAP)-linked rebels killed at least 60 mourners at a funeral in Ntoyo village in the Democratic Republic of Congo's North Kivu province.
UN counterterrorism experts have warned of a resurgence in activity by IS affiliates in the Sahel region (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger) and by IS in Syria and Iraq. The US-led coalition last month apprehended a senior member of IS in northwest Syria, but it is unknown whether the captured member is IS leader Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi.
Turkey has arrested at least 161 suspected members of the IS group this month, who were active within the group and providing financial support. Despite its loss of territory and power, IS sleeper cells remain present in Syria and Iraq, while offshoot armed groups continue to carry out lethal attacks worldwide.
IS launched deadly attacks in the West, including in Paris in 2015 and Brussels in 2016, as well as public beheadings of captured journalists and aid workers. The group's approach to radicalization, inviting poor and jobless young Muslims to 'fight for the sake of God' or their brand of Islam, remains a genuine danger.
However, it's important to note that IS remains largely weakened as an organization, and its capabilities to organize coordinated attacks are severely limited compared to its peak. The threat it poses today is different, more decentralized, and harder to contain. But the danger it presents should not be underestimated.
In conclusion, the resurgence of the Islamic State is a worrying development. While the group may no longer hold the territories it once did, its affiliates continue to operate and carry out lethal attacks across the globe. It's crucial that efforts to counter this threat are maintained and strengthened.
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