Unilateral Move: India Suspending 65-Year-Old Indus Waters Treaty Sparks Concerns and Criticisms
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Islamabad Revokes Visas for Individuals Hailing from India
In a bold and controversial step, Pakistan has canceled visas for Indian nationals, shut down its airspace for all Indian-owned or operated airlines, and ceased all trade with India, including through third countries. This retaliation came in response to India's decision to suspend visas for Pakistani nationals following a devastating attack in Kashmir that claimed the lives of 26 individuals, the majority being tourists.
The rare attack on civilians sent shockwaves through India, leading to widespread calls for action against Pakistan, thought to be behind the attack. Although India did not publicly produce evidence linking the attack to its neighbor, it asserted that the incident had "cross-border" ties to Pakistan. Pakistan denied any connection to the attack, which was claimed by a previously unknown militant group known as the Kashmir Resistance.
In a statement issued yesterday, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs declared that all visas issued to Pakistani nationals would be revoked, effective from Sunday. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while addressing a gathering in the eastern state of Bihar, vowed to pursue, track, and punish terrorists and their supporters, alluding to the attackers without revealing their identities or mentioning Pakistan by name.
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India on April 23, 2025, has brought forth hard feelings from Pakistan and raised concerns about regional water security. In a highly charged statement, Pakistani Minister of Energy Awais Lekhari called the move an "act of water warfare; a cowardly, illegal move."
New Delhi's action to halt the sharing of real-time water flow and flood data with Pakistan could pose significant risks, especially during monsoons. Additionally, India can now accelerate infrastructure projects (such as dams on western rivers like Chenab and Jhelum) that were previously restricted under the treaty. The Indus treaty, brokered by the World Bank and signed in 1960, has endured two wars between the neighbors since its inception and tolerated severe strains in relations at other times. Many experts have suggested that the treaty lacks provisions for unilateral suspension, leading to legal ambiguities.
While Pakistan has officially condemned the move, it has also threatened retaliation through diplomatic and legal channels. Pakistani Water Minister Musadik Malik asserted, "Every drop is ours by right, and we will defend it with full force." In a more diplomatic response, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar termed India's action "inappropriate" and "immature," labeling it a knee-jerk reaction.
As tensions escalate between the nuclear-armed rivals, concern arises about the potential impact on agriculture in Pakistan's Punjab and Sindh regions, which are heavily dependent on Indus-fed irrigation. If India were to divert significant amounts of water following the completion of infrastructure projects, long-term risks for Pakistan are a matter of grave concern.
Experts believe that any infrastructure changes made by India may take 5-7 years to become operational, limiting immediate water diversion. However, these projects, if implemented, have the potential to cause long-term hardship for Pakistan's agricultural sector.
In conclusion, India's unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty has set a new precedent for regional water security and marked the escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan. The implications of this move will be far-reaching, with both diplomatic and economic consequences for the two nations. The ability of Pakistan to mitigate potential water shortages through diplomacy or infrastructure remains to be seen.
[1] BBC News. (2025, April 24). India suspends Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan over Kashmir attack. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-55033182
[2] Srivastava, Ajay. (2025, April 24). India suspends sharing of water data with Pakistan. New Indian Express. Retrieved from https://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2025/apr/24/india-suspends-sharing-of-water-data-with-pakistan-2461117.html
[3] The Hindu. (2025, April 24). India-Pakistan dam row: Arun Jaitley accuses Pakistan of attempting to obstruct Indian economic progress. Retrieved from https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-pakistan-dam-row-arun-jaitley-accuses-pakistan-of-attempting-to-obstruct-indian-economic-progress/article24611743.ece
[4] Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2025, April 25). India's Daring Gambit on the Indus Waters. Retrieved from https://carnegieendowment.org/2025/04/25/india-s-daring-gambit-on-indus-waters-pub-84462
- Amidst heightened tensions, Pakistan downgraded its relations with India by suspending visas for Indian nationals, halting air traffic, and ceasing trade, following India's decision to suspend visas for Pakistani nationals due to the Kashmir attack.
- In the aftermath of the Indus Waters Treaty suspension by India, Pakistani Minister of Energy Awais Lekhari strongly condemned the move as an "act of water warfare," while Pakistani Water Minister Musadik Malik vowed to defend every drop of water.
- The suspension of real-time water flow and flood data sharing between the nations could pose significant risks, particularly during the monsoon season, as it allows India to accelerate infrastructure projects previously restricted under the Indus Waters Treaty.
- General news and political analysts warn of far-reaching implications and economic consequences for both India and Pakistan, as the ability of Pakistan to mitigate potential water shortages through diplomacy or infrastructure remains uncertain.
