Is Trump capable of compelling Putin to negotiate a truce?
The upcoming meeting between President Trump and President Putin could hold the key to a potential breakthrough in the ongoing Ukraine conflict or reveal the limitations of diplomacy. The summit, scheduled to take place soon, is shrouded in uncertainty, with both optimism and caution surrounding its potential outcomes.
President Trump has expressed cautious optimism about reaching a deal within about two weeks. However, he also suggested that Ukraine might need to adopt a more offensive military stance if negotiations fail. On the other hand, Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Lavrov, insist that Russia must have a role in any security guarantees for Ukraine and reject European-led diplomatic efforts as futile. This hardline stance complicates prospects for a peaceful resolution, as Russia is reported to continue intense military operations against Ukraine and missile attacks on civilian targets.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has criticized Russia for trying to avoid diplomatic meetings and emphasized Ukraine’s commitment to ongoing defense efforts backed by international support. He has called for intensified pressure on Russia to end the war, highlighting the evolving security cooperation between Ukraine and its partners.
In a positive development, direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine for the first time since 2022 have occurred under Turkish mediation in Istanbul. The warring parties have agreed to exchange prisoners and retrieve soldiers' bodies, with the repatriation of Ukrainian children allegedly taken to Russia continuing.
From Ukraine's perspective, a peace agreement requires security guarantees from Western partners, potentially in the form of NATO membership or bilateral assistance treaties. Moscow, on the other hand, proposes creating three working groups on political, military, and humanitarian issues to institutionalize this process.
However, the situation on the ground remains tense. In the Donetsk region, the Ukrainian group is threatened with encirclement near the cities of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. In the southern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhzhia, the Russian side has captured Kamianka and moved closer to the regional capital. The situation in the city of Konstantinovka to the north is also deteriorating, and if the Russian army expands a recent breakthrough between Konstantinovka and Pokrovsk, the remaining northern part of the Donetsk region is at risk.
Ukrainian troops are under heavy pressure on several fronts in eastern and southern Ukraine, with the shortage of soldiers due to recruitment problems and widespread desertion often leading to Russian territorial gains. Despite these challenges, Zelensky insists on an unconditional ceasefire to initiate negotiations on the withdrawal of Russian troops.
As the summit approaches, the future of negotiation steps for a ceasefire and genuine peace talks remains uncertain. The outcomes could range from progress in negotiations—potentially redefining Ukraine’s security arrangements and ending hostilities—to a stalemate that leads to continued or escalated conflict, depending largely on Moscow's willingness to compromise and Kyiv's military and diplomatic responses.
A follow-up meeting between Trump and Putin in Russia has already been agreed upon, with both sides listing questions about nuclear armament on their agenda. The summit's outcomes could have significant implications for the ongoing war and the future of Ukraine, making it a critical juncture in the conflict.
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