Is there imminent potential for a military conflict between India and Pakistan?
In the heat of the ongoing feud between India and Pakistan, the Indian administration has taken a decisive step by shutting down its airspace to Pakistani airlines, announcing the move on Wednesday and slated to last until May 23rd. This decision comes in retaliation to Pakistan's earlier ban on Indian flights, with the latter accusing India of potential military aggression in the coming days.
The tension between the two nuclear-armed neighbors is traceable back to an attack on April 22nd in the Indian part of Kashmir that resulted in the loss of 26 lives. Indian authorities claim that two of the three attackers were Pakistani citizens, identified as "terrorists" aimed at stirring violence in Kashmir. Pakistan, on the other hand, denies any involvement and demands an independent investigation.
Pakistan's Information Minister Attaullah Tarar made a statement citing "credible intelligence reports" on a social media platform X. However, India has yet to comment on this particular claim. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi previously granted "operational freedom" to the army in the disputed region of Kashmir.
The escalating situation has also caught the attention of the United States, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly speaking with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Rubio urged India to lower tensions with Pakistan and ensure peace and security in the region. He also spoke with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, pressuring Pakistan's authorities to work with India in examining the attack on Indian tourists and to re-establish direct contact with the Indian government.
Praveen Donthi from the International Crisis Group (ICG) highlights the growing demands for retaliatory actions from Indians against Pakistan, criticizing the government for its failure to protect the civilian population. Melissa Levaillant from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) notes that while Indians have escalated against Pakistan, it's unclear as to what end.
The current predicament mirrors the events of 2019, when an attack in Pulwama in the Indian part of Kashmir resulted in the deaths of 40 Indian paramilitary personnel. The responsibility was claimed by Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), a Pakistani Islamist group believed to be connected to Pakistan's external intelligence agency. As a response, India carried out air strikes against its neighbor for the first time since the 1971 war. Pakistan retaliated, shooting down an Indian aircraft and capturing a pilot.
Experts indicate that it's uncertain how the situation will unfold, with tensions remaining high along the Line of Control that separates the two countries. The financial and operational impacts of this standoff, including additional costs, extended flight durations, and economic losses, are becoming increasingly evident. Should tensions escalate further, the risk of diplomatic fallout and additional retaliatory measures loom large.
- The analyst from the International Crisis Group, Praveen Donthi, criticizes the Indian government for its inability to protect the civilian population amidst the escalating tension with Pakistan.
- The French President, Emmanuel Macron, has also expressed concern over the political tensions between India and Pakistan, warning of potential consequences.
- In the general-news, the ongoing standoff between Indian and Pakistani airlines has triggered a surge in the demand for analysts' opinions, as they attempt to forecast the financial and operational impacts of this prolonged standoff.
- Local analysts in Kashmir are particularly worried, as they predict that the ongoing clashes between India and Pakistan could further aggravate the region's political instability.
