Is the Dutch Exit on the Horizon Now?
The EU Braces for Potential Unraveling
The idea of a Dutch exit from the EU (Nexit) could pose a significant challenge for the European Union after the British and their Brexit. The right-wing populist and election winner Geert Wilders (60), who famously sports a quiff, has pushed the Nexit narrative during his campaign, causing raised eyebrows among EU leaders.
Turning Back the Wheels
A glance at the past reveals that Wilders' commitment to Nexit is more than just rhetoric. In 2016, he proposed a referendum on the topic, but it gathered little to no traction. Only 14 out of the 150 MPs supported his plan.
Overcoming the Obstacles
Should Wilders want to reintroduce the Nexit debate, he would first need to form a governing coalition and ascend to the position of Prime Minister. Secondly, he would need the necessary majority in parliament to pass the motion.
The Public's Sentiment
Even if these hurdles were surmountable, the majority of Dutch citizens are likely to oppose an Nexit, given their far greater EU identification (77%) compared to the EU average (72%) as indicated in the last Eurobarometer surveys.
Potential Impacts on Germany and Europe
Should the public sentiment shift towards Nexit, there could be several negative consequences for Germany and Europe at large.
Financial Implications
The Netherlands is currently a net contributor to the EU budget, contributing 3.2 billion EUR in 2022. Such a loss would necessitate significant budgetary adjustments within the EU.
Economic Repercussions
Restrictions on trade with the Netherlands could heavily impact German businesses, much like the post-Brexit situation for trade relations with the United Kingdom.
Administrative Challenges
Exacerbated administrative costs and increased IT adjustments will pose challenges for companies conducting business in the Netherlands.
Currency Shift and Customs Duties
The Netherlands' switch back to the guilder would mean exchange rate losses for Germans traveling to the Netherlands. Moreover, higher customs duties will make Dutch products more expensive, particularly affected items like cheese and tomatoes.
Traffic and Border Controls
Implementing Border controls and more stringent entry requirements would result in traffic congestion at the German-Dutch border. Travelers may even need to present a passport rather than an ID card to enter the country.
Negotiations and Work Permits
New exit negotiations would be on the horizon, posing significant challenges for the EU. Work permits and freedom of movement might also be restricted for EU citizens looking to reside in the Netherlands on a long-term basis.
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Enrichment Data:
The likelihood of a Nexit in the Netherlands compared to a British exit from the EU is relatively low due to stronger EU identification and stronger ties within the EU. While some populist advocates support Nexit, mainstream politics and public opinion are generally pro-EU, making a Nexit unlikely.
- Public Opinion: Dutch citizens generally have a favorable view toward the EU, and their support for the EU is more substantial than the average European citizen.
- Political Landscape: The political landscape in the Netherlands is currently pro-EU, with parties like the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the Labour Party (PvdA) often advocating for active EU involvement.
- Economic Integration: The Netherlands is deeply involved in the EU's economy, including being part of the single market and the eurozone, making withdrawal challenging from an economic perspective.
- International Relations: The Netherlands holds a significant role in international relations, preserving privileges in diplomatic and economic dealings by participating in EU institutions and agreements.
These factors further suggest that while there are voices advocating for a Nexit, the overall likelihood is relatively low. The current Dutch government and political parties remain committed to the EU, placing little emphasis on withdrawing from the union.
