Is the deeply disliked Iranian government on the verge of collapse?

The regime in Iran is notoriously known for its decay, corruption, financial troubles, and popular disdain. Is a collapse imminent? The ongoing Israeli assault, dubbed "Operation Rising Lion," shows no signs of abating, with Israel claiming "full control of Tehran's skies" on June 16. On June 17, U.S. President Donald Trump urged Tehran to "evacuate immediately**", and there's a noticeable exodus from the city in recent days. Shops are shuttered, and some Iranians are celebrating the assassination of their generals on social media with barbecue emojis, signaling a sense of humiliation and failure of the regime's military strategy.

Some Iranians hope this humiliation could trigger an uprising or a coup, leading to chaos or national renewal. Yet, the Iranian regime has a history of defying its aggressors instead of surrendering. An extended war with significant civilian casualties could actually rally public opinion in this intensely nationalistic country, allowing the regime to survive and redouble its efforts to race for a nuclear weapon.

Back in the 70s, Iran found itself in a disarray post-revolution and faced attacks. Saddam Hussein, Iraq's president, started the Iran-Iraq war in 1980, which lasted 8 years and costed hundreds of thousands of lives. Far from weakening the Iranian regime, it actually strengthened its leadership and the grip of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime's political militia. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is rooting for Iranians to rise up. "The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around their flag," he declared. His operation pays homage to the pre-revolutionary flag of the Shah and the Persian symbol of kingship at its center. Iran International, a London-based satellite channel, broadcasted his appeal into people's homes.

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IranIsraelWars and conflictsDonald TrumpBenjamin Netanyahu

Historically, the Iranian regime has shown remarkable resilience in the face of military and political crises. The regime's post-1979 political economy and institutional arrangement were designed to prevent the vulnerabilities that led to the Shah's fall. The IRGC, with a strong economic empire, creates a considerable interest among military commanders to maintain regime survival, making ideological loyalty a secondary factor. This setup has been a core underpinning of the regime's stability for over four decades.

In the past, the Iranian regime has withstood significant external and internal pressures, including the Iran-Iraq War, without collapsing. The 1979 revolution itself was precipitated by a different scenario involving popular uprisings, institutional fragmentation, and economic crisis. Modern Israeli strikes, while extremely destructive, have not yet broken the regime's structural pillars, representing the most intense recent challenge.

The impact of these new military actions and calls for regime change remains to be seen. Israel's attacks have degraded Iran's military capabilities but have bolstered the regime's narrative of resistance, which could strengthen internal cohesion in the face of external threats. U.S. and Israeli calls for regime change, while politically significant, have not led directly to regime collapse in the past, partly due to the regime's economic and institutional design aimed at insulating itself from such pressures.

In conclusion, historical experience and the regime's designed resilience suggest that these pressures are more likely to strengthen regime survival mechanisms rather than cause immediate collapse. However, the situation remains volatile, and experts monitor for signs of potential regime instability, as a collapse could have far-reaching consequences.

Iran's resilience in the face of political and military conflicts, as displayed in the past during the Iran-Iraq War, suggests that ongoing war with significant civilian casualties may actually strengthen the regime's internal cohesion and narrative of resistance, making a collapse less imminent.
Despite U.S. President Donald Trump's call for Tehran to evacuate immediately and the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's calls for Iranians to rise up, the regime's historical resilience, marked by its politico-economic design and the IRGC's strong economic empire, indicates that these pressures are more likely to strengthen survival mechanisms rather than cause an immediate collapse.