Is NATO currently in a tricky position?
A Look at the Finnish-Russia Conflict
After Finland joined NATO in April 2023, tensions between Russia and the Western alliance have remained high. Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader, voiced concerns about Russia encountering problems with Finland following the latter's NATO membership. In an unexpected turn, Putin's suspicions materialized only four days after dismissing the idea of Russia attacking NATO countries, as Russia invaded Ukraine. Putin subsequently accused NATO countries of instigating a conflict between Russia and Finland, pulling the latter into the alliance.
The European Union and NATO have been keeping a close eye on the situation, with concerns regarding potential Russian aggression towards Finland. The Soviet Union attempted but failed in its effort to occupy Finland during the Winter War of 1939-1940. Since Finland only gained its independence from Russia in 1917, these historical tensions and the recent membership to NATO make concerns about a possible Russian invasion seem justified.
Russia's Perspective on NATO and the West
Military experts from the US think tank "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW) shared their insights, suggesting that Putin's current statements indicate a connection between the declining support for Ukraine and a potential escalation of Russia's conflict with NATO. In Putin's narrative, the West appears weak, which is a long-standing Russian perspective.
Putin's words often include threats of using nuclear weapons against the USA and NATO countries. Verbal attacks against neighboring countries are also frequent. In July 2023, Putin stated that Russia would respond "with all the means at its disposal" in response to Warsaw sending troops to the Belarusian-Polish border following the transfer of Wagner Group fighters to Belarus.
NATO's Preparedness and Consequences
Although ISW experts do not see a direct military threat in Putin's current statements, stopping Western military aid to Ukraine could have serious consequences for NATO. If this support were to cease, Russia's military capabilities might improve, and its occupation of Ukraine would become a possibility. This would pose a significant and costly threat to Western security, calling for increased defense preparations along most of NATO's eastern border.
According to ISW experts, supporting Ukraine is the best opportunity to avoid such costs and the extended Russian threat.
Additional Insights
NATO's Declaration on Russia
Following Finland's NATO membership in 2023, NATO officially declared Russia as the "most significant and direct threat” to its members' peace and security, caused by Moscow's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine[2].
Russia's Military Build-Up
Russia is rebuilding its military, receiving financial and material support from China, North Korea, and Iran. This military reconstruction enables Russia to maintain the option of launching a full-scale war against NATO, though Moscow has not yet decided to act on this[3].
Russian Intentions and Responses
Russian leaders believe that the United States and NATO are attempting to expand their power, encircle Russia, and weaken it militarily, politically, and economically. This motive fuels Russia's desire to reconstitute its military and prepare for a possible conflict against the West if deterrence fails[5].
Border Expansion and Implications
Finland's entry into NATO has doubled the length of NATO's border with Russia. This expansion is seen as significant, contributing to heightened tensions between the two sides[1][4].
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Enrichment Data: To delve deeper into the Finnish-Russia conflict and NATO-Russia tensions, the following enrichment insights have been incorporated:
NATO's Declaration on Russia
NATO's declaration of Russia as the "most significant and direct threat” to its members' peace and security is in response to the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by the Moscow regime[2]. This declaration highlights the allied concern with Russia's aggressive actions and the deterrent measures that NATO has in place to protect its member states.
Russia's Military Build-Up
Russia's military build-up is driven by a desire to regain its superpower status. Moscow is relying on financial and material support from countries like China, North Korea, and Iran to enhance its arsenal and capabilities, enabling it to potentially wage a full-scale war against NATO[3].
Russian Intentions and Responses
Russia's hostile rhetoric towards the West is due to its perception of NATO encirclement, aimed at weakening Russia politically, militarily, and economically. Putin's concerns over a critique from the West on Russian political topics, such as the treatment of opposition figures, are another source of tension. Russia also believes that Western aid to Ukraine is an unacceptable intervention in its internal affairs[5].
Border Expansion and Implications
Finland's membership in NATO has resulted in a significant border expansion for the alliance with Russia. The relocation of NATO forces and infrastructure to Finnish territory, in response to Russian aggression, could escalate tensions between the two sides[1][4]. Russian leaders might perceive this as a threat to their national security and potentially respond with aggressive actions.
In summary, NATO, in the context of the Finnish-Russia conflict, remains in a challenging position due to the geopolitical aims and aggressive actions of Russia. Despite the presence of tensions, both sides are committed to maintaining an uneasy peace.
