Is Japan capable of ensuring stability in Southeast Asia in light of the US's unpredictability?
In the early days of the new US administration in 2017, Senator Marco Rubio had a separate meeting with the foreign ministers of the Quad (US, Japan, Australia, and India). This meeting, just a day after Donald Trump's inauguration, signified a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape.
The purpose of the meeting was to strengthen ties with ASEAN countries amid shifting global dynamics. Japan, recognized as Southeast Asia's most trusted partner, was keen to bolster its relations with the region.
In April 2024, the US and Japan incorporated the Philippines into a historic trilateral arrangement to bolster the 'free and open international order based on the rule of law'. This move was a testament to Japan's commitment to Southeast Asia's security and stability.
Japan's endeavors to expand its security footprint in Southeast Asia, however, face challenges such as limited defense budgets, political sensitivities, and growing concerns nearer to its home islands. For instance, Japan is concerned about Russia's growing security ties with North Korea.
In 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba embarked on his first bilateral overseas trip, visiting Malaysia and Indonesia from 9 to 12 January. The investment during this visit focused on critical areas such as port expansion, human resource development, and green energy. Japan announced significant investment commitments, including US$815 million for projects in Indonesia.
In Malaysia, discussions centered on advancing trade, strengthening energy security, carbon capture, and strengthening the regional supply chain. A key highlight was discussions with Indonesia on plans to co-develop a warship for the Indonesian Navy.
Japan, in its strategic position, serves as an important bridge between ASEAN and the US. The Philippines, due to its position in the South China Sea disputes, plays a pivotal role in Japan's regional security strategy.
The article, first published in Fulcrum, ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute's blogsite, is relevant to SDGs 7 (Energy), 9 (Infrastructure), and 17 (Partnerships). It also touches on topics such as energy security, renewable energy, supply chain, and Carbon capture, use and storage.
Joanne Lin, a Senior Fellow and Co-coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS - Yusof Ishak Institute, and William Choong, a Senior Fellow at the same institute and Managing Editor at Fulcrum, contributed to this insightful piece.
However, there is no available information on which countries Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba visited in 2025 or with which countries he established defense partnerships. Sino-Russian naval activities around Japan's southwestern islands rose from 50 in 2023 to 80 in 2024, adding to Japan's security concerns.
Nonetheless, Ishiba's visit advanced Japan's security partnerships in Southeast Asia, positioning it as a key player in the region's future. Japan, with its commitment to peace, stability, and development, continues to play a crucial role in the Asia Pacific.
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