Is it Possible that Trump will Travel to China in 2025? Betting Markets Indicate a Strong Chance of This Occurrence
In the world of financial markets, a series of events surrounding former U.S. President Donald Trump's potential visit to China is causing a stir. Here's a breakdown of the latest developments.
Reuters reports that Washington and Beijing have agreed on a framework for TikTok, which includes a Trump-Xi call, signalling a thaw and opening the door for higher-level meetings. This development has sparked increased interest among traders, who are closely watching the Reddit, Kalshi, and Polymarket markets for updates.
The Reddit market, known for its purest market on whether Trump goes, estimates a 48% chance that Trump will physically visit mainland China before the end of 2025. This estimation is based on official White House releases or AP/Reuters reporting. The Reddit contract resolves only if Trump enters mainland China-airspace overflights or Hong Kong/Taiwan stopovers are not counted.
On the other hand, the Kalshi market is centred around Trump meeting various world leaders, with Xi Jinping holding a strong lead among contenders. Kalshi, a regulated U.S. event-futures exchange, runs a contract on whether Trump will meet Xi Jinping this year, with users predicting a 73% chance of such a meeting.
The Polymarket lists a "Trump travel in 2025" market where China is among the top destinations, trading around 52% "yes" as of the current writing. The Polymarket market provides a comparative sense of China versus other possible destinations for Trump's travel, acting as a sentiment barometer.
WSJ and SCMP report that Beijing has formally invited Trump, and negotiations for a state visit are well underway, with trade deliverables under discussion. If the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping happens, it would likely coincide with a formal state visit.
It's important to note that a leaked advance team trip or confirmed Trump-Xi call can significantly impact prices across the platforms. The White House has extended TikTok's divestiture deadline, suggesting ongoing senior dialogue between Washington and Beijing.
For those seeking regulatory-compliant exposure, Kalshi is an option, and for a broader sentiment snapshot, Polymarket's travel board is worth monitoring. The probability that former US President Donald Trump will visit China before the end of 2025 is very high, as he has publicly announced his intention to travel to China early next year after a phone call and agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping, following their planned meeting at the APEC summit in South Korea in autumn 2025.
This developing story is a testament to the interconnectedness of global politics and finance, with markets providing a unique lens into the potential future of U.S.-China relations.
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