Busting ISIS Cells: The Timeline and Persistence of Islamic State Activities in Iraq
From Defeat to Guerrilla Warfare
- Life After Baghdadi: The death of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October 2019 marked a significant blow to the group, although it didn't eliminate their presence entirely [4].
- Iraq announces the death of IS leader, Abu Khadija.
Loss of Major Cities (2017-2018): Post the defeat of ISIS strongholds like Mosul and Raqqa, the militant group shifted to guerrilla tactics such as ambushes, bombings, and assassinations. Despite remnants of ISIS posing a threat, the group's control was significantly weakened [3][4].
Changing the Game: US Military Transition and Role
- Shift to Advisory (2021-2022): In 2021, the U.S. and Iraq agreed to transition the U.S. military role from combat to advisory, leading up to full Iraqi responsibility for security operations against ISIS by the end of the year [2].
- ISIS Remains a Threat (2023-2024): Despite this transition, ISIS cells continued to pose a threat at a lower level. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), assisted by U.S.-led coalition airstrikes and intelligence, conducted numerous operations against ISIS [2].
Eliminating Leaders: The Fall of Abu Khadija
- Taking Out a Key Player (2024-2025): In March 2025, ISIS leader in Iraq, Abdallah Maki Mosleh al-Rifai, also known as Abu Khadija, was killed in an operation involving Iraqi and U.S.-led coalition forces [1][2]. This operation was intended to further curb the militant group's power.
A Never-Ending Battle: Persistent Threat and Countermeasures
- ISIS Resurgence Concerns: With the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, there were concerns about a potential ISIS revival. However, ongoing collaboration between the U.S. and Iraq in military operations, diplomacy, and humanitarian assistance helped keep ISIS at bay [1][2].
- Managing New Challenges: Politics in Syria and Iraq continue to play a role in shaping ISIS's activities. The new government in Syria, led by former HTS leaders, faces challenges in stabilizing the country and preventing ISIS from taking advantage of power vacuums [4][5].
The European Union and its Member States, supposedly, added their support to the US-led coalition in the fight against ISIS by providing intelligence and resources [1].
Following the death of key ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, another leader, Abu Khadija, was declared as the new leader of ISIS cells in Iraq [1].
Despite the significant losses of ISIS, the European Union and its Member States might need to continue their support in the counter-terrorism operations, given the persistent presence of ISIS cells [1].
