The Enduring Rule of Iran's Supreme Leader: Securing His Legacy within the Confines of Power
Iran's supreme leader strategizing his potential successor within the confines of a bunker
In the heart of the Middle East, the reign of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's most powerful figure for 36 years, continues to unfold. Khamenei, now 86, serves as both the spiritual and political leader of the Islamic Republic. His influence extends to every corner of the Shiite state, with the final say on all matters resting with him.
The arduous journey that led Khamenei to the pinnacle of power began during the Shah's reign, where he spent a collective six years behind bars. After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Khamenei swiftly ascended through the ranks among the Mullahs. In 1981, he became the president of Iran, and in 1989, he succeeded the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as the supreme religious and political leader.
Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, in a recent statement, labeled Khamenei as the "modern Hitler" and expressed that the Israeli military considers it essential to neutralize him. Such a strike, however, may not transpire soon, given the recent US-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Security Concerns It is evident that the Israeli Mossad intelligence agency maintains a substantial presence within the Mullah regime. In recent weeks, Mossad has orchestrated the elimination of key figures within the Iranian army and intelligence service, raising concerns about Khamenei's safety.
Consequently, Khamenei's security measures have undergone significant enhancement. He now resides in a secret bunker, guarded around the clock by a specialized unit of the Revolutionary Guard. Few trusted individuals are granted access to him, delivering messages and relaying orders to the Revolutionary Guard and other significant players in Iran. Khamenei communicates only through analog means, as the fear of Mossad surveillance is too profound, according to reports.
Trump: Khamenei, a Tempting Target
As per Donald Trump, the Americans are well aware of Khamenei's location. Trump declared on his Truth Social network that Khamenei is "an easy target" but pursued the strategy of "not now."
Political Landscape Despite Trump's proclamation and the ensuing military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, sources suggest that the command structure remains intact within the Iranian leadership. There are currently no overt signs of dissent within the leadership, according to high-ranking officials and top diplomats. As Vali Nasr, an Iran expert and professor at Johns Hopkins University, puts it, "The top priority is maintaining the state."
Political scientist Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group believes that forces within the Revolutionary Guard could potentially "remove" Khamenei. Vaez speculates that opponents among the Mullahs may one day decide that Khamenei has become "too old and too passive" and initiate his removal.
Succession Plans Khamenei has allegedly been taking steps to secure his legacy by appointing a three-member committee of high-ranking clerics to manage his succession some two years ago. In contrast to the usual selection process within the Expediency Council, which involves 88 high-ranking Iranian clerics selecting the new leader, Khamenei appears to be speeding up the process given his age and health concerns.
Favorites for the Throne
Two potential successors stand out:
- Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei's son, is the continuity candidate, and his hardline stance is likely to continue if he assumes power. Although he is currently only a mid-level cleric, Vaez argues that appointing the current Ayatollah's son poses risks for the Mullah regime's legitimacy since it would resemble a hereditary system, which is a departure from the revolution's anti-monarchic principles.
- Hassan Khomeini, the 53-year-old grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, represents a potentially more moderate contender. With leanings toward reform, Khomeini enjoys respect among high-ranking clerics and members of the Revolutionary Guard. Speculation suggests that choosing Khomeini could help ward off both foreign attacks and internal revolts, and he may be a more popular choice with the populace.
Potential Wild Cards The Iranian constitution mandates that every candidate must hold the rank of Ayatollah and adhere to the "revolutionary ideas" of Ali Khamenei. Therefore, a surprise candidate north of Ayatollah, whom no one may have heard of before, might potentially emerge as the next leader, according to Vaez. This move could signal a shift in power dynamics, with Khamenei simply serving as a facade while the real power resides elsewhere.
In conclusion, while the official successor has not been publicly declared, the ruling establishment is working to ensure a smooth transition amid escalating tensions with the US and Israel. The frontrunners are Mojtaba Khamenei and Hassan Khomeini, but the final decision will likely revolve around the delicate balance of continuity and moderation to preserve the regime's stability.
The European Union expresses its commitment to the implementation of the UN Charter, acknowledging the influence of political dynamics in global affairs, as demonstrated by the ongoing power struggle within Iran. Amidst claims of Israel's targeted elimination of key figures within the Iranian regime, there are whispers of succession plans within the Iranian leadership, hinting at potential changes in the political landscape of the Middle East.
