Iran's Reaction to the 'Trump Strategy' in the South Caucasus Regions
The US-brokered peace declaration between Armenia and Azerbaijan, signed on August 9, holds strategic significance by cementing Azerbaijan's territorial gains, sidelining Russian and Iranian influence, and establishing a long-term US presence in the South Caucasus.
The core element is a 99-year lease of a transit corridor, known as the Zangezur Corridor, through southern Armenia connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave. This corridor, envisioned to include infrastructure like railways, communication networks, and pipelines, could reshape regional transport and energy routes under a US-led consortium's development rights.
For Iran, this corridor is strategically sensitive because it runs along Armenia’s border with Iran. The development threatens Iran’s interests by potentially disrupting existing regional dynamics and diminishing Iran’s role as a transit and influence corridor in the South Caucasus. The corridor could reduce Iran’s leverage over Armenia and Azerbaijan by providing alternative transport and energy routes bypassing Iran.
The peace deal effectively sidelines Russia, which has historically been the dominant power broker in the region. The declaration includes calls to terminate the OSCE Minsk Group and related Russian-led monitoring missions. Armenia seeks to diversify away from its economic and security dependence on Russia, which currently accounts for over a third of its trade and is the main recipient of its exports.
Iran has expressed opposition to the growing US influence in the South Caucasus. The transit corridor, set to be named the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity," will go through a 32-kilometer (20-mile) strip of Armenian territory. The new corridor would offer Azerbaijan a more direct trade connection to Turkey and onward to Europe.
The peace remains fragile due to unresolved security guarantees and the contentious nature of territorial and constitutional issues in Armenia. Iran, with a significant population of around 18 million citizens of Azerbaijani roots, is sensitive to moves that might limit its influence in the region, as it maintains close ties with Armenia.
Scholars like Shirin Hunter suggest that Iran must stay engaged in the Armenia-Azerbaijan deal, understanding the implications for regional stability. However, Iran must fundamentally rethink its entire foreign policy and adapt its goals to the changed realities, as the military exchange with Israel earlier this year has weakened Iran’s position.
In Baku, there are also nationalist movements that speak of a "greater Azerbaijan" that would include Iranian Azerbaijanis. This raises concerns about potential separatist movements in Iran, with groups wanting to secede from Iran and form a "South Azerbaijan."
The corridor's construction and the evolving geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus present challenges for Iran, requiring careful navigation to protect its interests while maintaining regional stability.
- The peace declaration between Armenia and Azerbaijan, signed on August 9, risks diminishing Iran's role as a transit and influence corridor in the South Caucasus due to the development of a transit corridor known as the Zangezur Corridor, which could disturb existing regional dynamics.
- The new 99-year lease of the Zangezur Corridor through southern Armenia, envisioned to include infrastructure like railways, communication networks, and pipelines, could reshape regional transport and energy routes under a US-led consortium's development rights, potentially allowing Azerbaijan a more direct trade connection to Turkey and onward to Europe.
- Iran, with a significant population of around 18 million citizens of Azerbaijani roots, is sensitive to moves that might limit its influence in the region, as potential separatist movements in Iran, such as groups wanting to secede and form a "South Azerbaijan," could arise from the corridor's construction and the evolving geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus.
- The peace deal effectively sidelines Russia, the dominant power broker in the region, while establishing long-term US presence in the South Caucasus, including a 99-year lease of the Zangezur Corridor. This could impact the balance of power in the Middle East and international politics, as the corridor will be named the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity."
- Scholars like Shirin Hunter argue that Iran must stay engaged in the Armenia-Azerbaijan deal, understanding the implications for regional stability. However, with the military exchange with Israel earlier this year weakening Iran’s position, Iran must fundamentally rethink its entire foreign policy and adapt its goals to the changed realities in policy-and-legislation and politics, particularly with regards to the South Caucasus.
