Iran's perceived invincibility has been challenged, potentially leading to significant aftermath.
For over three decades, Iran had a shield, frame-work of proxy networks, expanding territorial disputes, keeping foes at bay. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei maintained his grip on power, an invincible image.
That armor cracked swiftly on June 13, as Israel launched a daring, unforeseen attack deep in Iran - shattering Tehran's sense of safety and unraveling the strong, battle-tested facade.
The strikes took out substantial military leaders and prominent nuclear scientists, like a few sounding asleep with families nearby. The blow to human lives was severe; Hossein Kermanpour, the Ministry of Health's chief of information, reported 627 fatalities, among them 49 women and 13 children. The US jumped into the fray on Sunday, striking nuclear sites and subsequently declaring a ceasefire between Israel and Iran the following day.
Many in Iran and foreign nations now question whether the wounded regime, with its pride and defenses now tarnished, might tighten its regime at home while adopting a more aggressive stance in both domestic and international affairs.
Israel and the US discussed the hope of a more friendly, pliable state emerging as a potential outcome of their attacks on Iran, but their failure to initiate regime change leaves the regime to celebrate a "win."
Post-loss, Iran's leadership has replaced their fallen comrades and enforced disciplinary action against those perceived as involved in Israel's assault.
Indications point to a regime that is more guarded and likely to impose tighter control at home out of fear of working with enemies.
A nation wounded yet united
After three years of strict conservative rule, led by Ebrahim Raisi, Iran voted for reformist Masoud Pezeshkian in 2024, who campaigned on dialogue with Iran's enemies as a means to tackle domestic issues.
For many Iranians, he offered a glimmer of hope - healing the rift with the West and reestablishing Iran within the international community.
Throughout the 12-day conflict, Iran counterattacked Israel, causing widespread damage to major cities like Tel Aviv and taking the lives of 28 people. Their ability to retaliate during a bombardment earned support even from opponents of the regime.
"People feel intensely nationalistic," said Ali, a 36-year-old resident. "Less than a week ago, we went through a war together that everyone considers unjustified, so the government currently has some goodwill despite policies putting us in danger."
However, anxiety looms about the future; calls for change are rising as the regime hunts dissenters and "collaborators" with Israel. By Wednesday, authorities detained 700 individuals tagged "mercenaries of Israel," as per state-linked Fars News Agency.
Neda, a 45-year-old Iranian, believes the IRGC, an elite wing of the military that is sanctioned by the US, will continue to strengthen in power, especially if a vacant leadership arises.
Khamenei has retreated to a bunker, with limited communication, and hasn't appeared in public since the ceasefire took effect on Tuesday.
"They (government) displayed a potent front during their response to Israel, and this will temporarily bolster their reputation," Neda reported to CNN. "But doubts linger about whether the gains we made (in bringing reform) over the past few years stay valid. What was it all for? We've always knew that change must come from within and that was happening. Now where do we find ourselves?"
All Iranians who spoke with CNN did so under condition of anonymity due to fear for their safety.
Arash Azizi, an Iran expert and author of "What Iranians Want," fears Iranians worry about "a wounded regime tightening the political and civic space even further."
Repression could worsen, according to Azizi, with the Iranian opposition abroad deemed "inept and politically irrelevant," while civil society at home feels on the defense.
Experts predict that the attacks on Iran have emboldened conservatives, who feel the West and Israel cannot be trusted and see negotiations as a ploy to weaken the country. The fate of reformers and pragmatists is uncertain, and time will tell if they can survive amid shifting ranks in the leadership.
"The attacks have bolstered hardliners arguing that diplomacy with the West is fruitless, and Iran must maintain its military self-sufficiency," Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based Center for International Policy, told CNN. "Reformist voices advocating engagement with the West are weakened in this climate."
"In short term, hardliners will likely prevail," Toossi said, "but that may change depending on the broader outcome of the conflict and the results of diplomatic efforts with the US."
On Sunday, the US joined Israel's battle against Iran, striking three nuclear sites; the risk of a full-blown war with the Islamic Republic hung in the balance. However, on Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, preserving the regime that Trump claimed he didn't want to change because it "would lead to chaos."
"The broader lesson is that Iran is not invulnerable, but neither is it easily overthrown," Toossi said. The conflict did not cultivate popular uprisings, but rather highlighted unity among Iranians who shared the belief that their country was attacked without provocation, even with growing trepidation of repression to come.
"Regardless of support or disagreement with the government," Reza, a 35-year-old man from Iran, told CNN, "there is resentment directed toward Trump and Israel."
Khamenei's political survival
Khamenei, the longest-serving leader in the Middle East, has ruled with an iron fist for more than 35 years, having suppressed protests since 2005.
As the highest authority in Iran, domestic and foreign policies are heavily influenced or shaped by him. Some experts suggest that despite national unity following the conflict with Israel, there is likely frustration with Khamenei.
"He was too cautious when he needed to be bold, and too bold when he had to be cautious," according to Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. "The cleric has been criticized for shattering Iran's deterrence and rendering it vulnerable."
"A lot of the blame is placed on him for his inflexibility during negotiations, his defiance in the face of stronger military powers," Vaez further told CNN, "and questions about his health and leadership could arise as the dust settles."
Questions about the role and importance of a Supreme Leader in the long term could also arise, said Vaez.
"There's a strong desire from Revolutionary Guards and military forces in Iran to double down, further entrenching their position, militarizing the internal sphere, and possibly pursuing nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent," Vaez added.
The paranoia around Israeli infiltration in the government will likely result in a "purge" at the top levels, facilitating the dominance of hardliners.
Reformist Pezeshkian's fate and his moderate faction remain uncertain. While Khamenei has remained hidden, it was Pezeshkian who spoke to Iranians, making public statements, and even attending an anti-war protest in Tehran.
Still, reformists aren't escaping the public's wrath. A 42-year-old woman in Iran questioned the regime's viability. "They've put us in a difficult position," she told CNN. "This happened on a reformist's watch."
Experts suggest that the shattering of the regime's image of invincibility will change Iran, but how this shift takes shape is unpredictable and contingent on both the Iranian leadership and foreign powers' reactions to the 12-day conflict.
For the Iranian people, a belief in a sense of security within Iran's borders has been obliterated.
"The Islamic Republic established a single social contract with society: it restricted all freedoms in return for ensuring safety," Vaez noted. "Now, that image has been shattered in the eyes of the Iranian people."
- The world is questioning whether the wounded Iranian regime, with its pride and defenses now tarnished, might tighten its grip at home while adopting a more aggressive stance in both domestic and international politics, following the attacks.
- Amidst the uncertainty of the regime's future, experts predict that the attacks on Iran have emboldened conservatives, who see negotiations as a ploy to weaken the country and believe that Iran must maintain its military self-sufficiency, given the perceived disloyalty of the West and Israel.
