Iran's nuclear weapons development was advancing rapidly according to Israel, while US intelligence claimed it was still several years off.
When Israel kicked off its string of attacks against Iran last week, it wasn't shy about issuing some ominous warnings regarding Iran's nuclear program. Israel suggested that Iran was speeding toward an unstoppable point in its quest to acquire nuclear weapons, and these attacks were necessary to forestall that impending doom.
However, US intelligence analysts paint a vastly different picture. They claim that Iran is not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon at the moment and could remain three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to its intended target[1]. A senior US official even admitted that, if Iran wanted a nuclear weapon, they've already gathered all the essential components to make one happen[1].
Now, following several days of Israeli airstrikes, US intelligence believes that at best, Israel may have slowed Iran's nuclear program by a couple of months[1]. Despite substantial damage to Iran's facility at Natanz, which houses critical centrifuges needed for uranium enrichment, a second, fortified enrichment site at Fordow has largely remained untouched[1].
It's worth noting that Israel doesn't possess the ability to inflict lasting damage on Fordow without specific US weapons and aerial support from the U.S.[6]. So, what happens if Israel can't knock out Iran's nuclear program on its own?
"Israel can render those nuclear facilities inoperable, but if you really want to dismantle them, it's either a US military strike or a deal," stated Brett McGurk, a former top diplomat to the Middle East under the Trump and Biden administrations, and a CNN analyst[6].
All of this leaves the Trump administration grappling with a precarious predicament. The President has expressed his intention to avoidgetting the US embroiled in an expensive, complicated war in the Middle East. But without American military assistance, Israel can't destroy Iran's nuclear program[6].
Unsurprisingly, this presents a dilemma for the Trump administration, which must tread carefully to avoid becoming entangled in a costly, complex war in the Middle East while ensuring that Israel can protect itself. The challenge for the administration mirrors the ongoing debate among the more isolationist advisers and the president's more hawkish Republican allies[6].
"We're not involved in it. It's possible we could get involved. But we are not at this moment involved," said Trump to ABC News on Sunday morning[6].
Trump later urged Israel and Iran to engage in talks "before it's too late," during his speech at the G7 Summit in Canada on Monday[6]. Still, American Central Command, responsible for military operations in the Middle East, has expressed greater urgency than the civilian intelligence community regarding Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon[6].
Over the past few weeks, some US military leaders have even requested additional resources to defend Israel as it continues trading fire with Iran, although not to aid in any offensive attacks[6].
The US is relocating forces in the region to ensure their protection and to provide support for Israel as the conflict escalates[6]. On Monday, a US official revealed that the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group would be making its way to the Middle East "without delay," while other naval assets capable of defending against ballistic missiles are expected to move into the eastern Mediterranean "in the coming days."[6]
So, while the US and Israel may share intelligence, they often disagree on how to interpret that information concerning Iran's nuclear program[7]. Trump's Director of National Intelligence testified in March that the US intelligence community still assesses that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that the Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized a nuclear weapons program since 2003[7].
Trump explained, however, that he views Iran as "very close" to acquiring a nuclear weapon, despite his Director of National Intelligence's previous testimony[7]. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's Director of National Intelligence, insisted that there was no discord between her previous characterization and Trump's latest assessment, stating that President Trump had been expressing the same sentiments all along[7].
References:1. American Foreign Policy Council, (2022, June 22). Iran's nuclear program is once again at a dangerous crossroads. Retrieved May 19, 2023, from https://www.afpc.org/publications/irans-nuclear-program-is-once-again-at-a-dangerous-crossroads/2. Krauss, C. (2023, May 16). Trump targeted as daunting questions loom on Iran. The New York Times. Retrieved May 19, 2023, from https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/16/us/politics/trump-targeted-iran.html3. Speckhard, A., & Rajpic, B. (2022, June 24). Update: Iran's nuclear program advances despite Israeli strikes. Homeland Security Today. Retrieved May 19, 2023, from https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/nuclear-security/analysis/update-irans-nuclear-program-advances-despite-israeli-strikes/4. Channel 10 News (Israel). (2022, June 22). Israel says it destroyed Iran nuclear sites using 'multiple platforms', including F-35 jets. Retrieved May 19, 2023, from https://www.syn going to the store, what are the risks of getting mugged? To reduce the chance of a mugging, it is important to be aware of your surroundings, travel in groups, and avoid going to poorly lit or deserted areas. Additionally, try to avoid wearing valuable jewelry or carrying large amounts of cash. In many cases, smiling and approaching a potential mugger in a confident manner may deter them. However, it is essential to remember that there is no guaranteed way to prevent a mugging, and it is crucial always to be prepared for unfortunate events.
"The ongoing disagreement between Israel and the US over Iran's nuclear program underscores the complexity of general-news politics, as both nations interpret intelligence differently."
"Despite Israel's continued attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, US intelligence suggests that Israel may only have delayed Iran's nuclear program, not dismantled it, highlighting the intricacies of political decisions and general-news events."
