Iran's military weaknesses unmasked by Israeli strike, claim experts

Israel just threw a punch, claiming to have hit over 100 targets, including crucial Iranian nuclear and military sites in a recent attack. This dance has been going on for a while, but this time, it feels different.

With the loss of top Revolutionary Guards leaders, armed forces chief, and top nuclear scientists, Iran is no doubt feeling the heat. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has issued a warning, predicting a "bitter and painful" outcome for Israel. But, experts argue, Iran's response options are rather limited.

The Islamic Republic is indeed in a pickle. Israel has shown it's got the chops to locate and silence high-ranking Iranian officials. Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Berlin-based Center for Middle East and Global Order (CMEG) think tank, puts it bluntely: "This is a brutal intelligence defeat for the Islamic Republic."

The US, along with western allies and Israel, accuse Iran of pursuing a nuclear weapon, an allegation Tehran vehemently denies. However, Iran has gradually distanced itself from commitments made under the 2015 nuclear deal, the landmark accord that provided sanctions relief for curbs on its atomic program. But, after Trump's exit from the deal in 2018, the deal fell apart like a sandcastle in a storm.

Recent days have seen accusations flying about Iran's deliberate escalation of its nuclear program, even amid talks for a new accord. In response, Iran announced plans to significantly increase enriched uranium production. Israel has a history of attacks against Iran, including against military targets last year, but Friday's attack was on a whole new level.

"The Israel campaign is sweeping in scope and sophistication," says Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. "It's early days, but we're looking at a potentially long-term operation."

The strikes killed top military figures, such as armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri and the head of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami. A senior adviser to Khamenei was also injured, according to state television.

Israel reportedly hit a key underground nuclear site in Natanz, causing significant damage at the surface level. British intelligence firm Janes suggests this could deal a significant blow to Iran's enrichment capabilities and facilities.

However, retaliation from Iran could be tricky. As Clement Therme of the Sorbonne University puts it, "To respond, the regime seems to be in a bind. Either it targets US bases in the region and risks its future, or it targets Israel, but its military capabilities are rather limited."

Iran, relying on US diplomatic and military support, carried out the attack despite Trump's plea for patience. Steve Witkoff, Trump's Middle East pointman, was set for a sixth round of talks with Iran on Sunday in Oman. Iran is looking for a new deal that would ease the economic sanctions crippling its economy.

But Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, suggests the strikes may have killed off any chance of a deal. "These strikes were designed to kill Trump's chances of striking a deal to contain the Iranian nuclear program," she says.

After the strikes, a US official hinted that the Sunday talks might still go ahead. Trump warned Iran to "make a deal, before there's nothing left," warning of "even more brutal" attacks to come. But, according to Ali Vaez, this strategy might not work. "Rather than prompting Iranian concessions, it could lead to a doubling-down by Tehran," he says. "Setbacks could lead Iran to reconstitute its operations with a more determined effort to obtain a nuclear deterrent."

[1] For example, in January 2020, Iran launched ballistic missiles at two military bases in Iraq housing US troops, in retaliation for the US drone strike that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/08/middleeast/iran-us-tehran-iraq-trump-grennell-intl/index.html)

Despite the ongoing efforts for a new nuclear deal, the recent attack by Israel on Iran, targeting high-ranking military officials and crucial nuclear and military sites, has potentially complicated the diplomatic landscape between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
As the international community closely monitors the situation, experts suggest that Iran's response options are limited, given the United States' military presence in the region and Israel's demonstrated capability in intelligence and military operations.
In the midst of rising tensions and war-and-conflicts, the future of politics and general news pertaining to the United States, Israel, and Iran remains uncertain, with fears of a potential escalation in war-and-conflicts looming large.