Tackling the Iranian Nuclear Threat: Breaking it Down
Iran's Capability in Atomic Weapon Development: Nuclear Expert Affirms Iran's Likely Skills
PM Benjamin Netanyahu's primary objective is crystal clear: Nip the Iranian nuclear menace in the bud. On the opposite side of the globe, the White House sounded the alarm on June 19, claiming that Iran has the ability to manufacture a nuclear bomb in as little as two weeks. However, Emmanuelle Galichet, a seasoned nuclear physics researcher at the Conservatoire national des arts et métiers (Cnam), sets the record straight on our site. While it's relatively simple to establish nuclear capabilities secretly, crafting an actual bomb is a different story.
In order to create a nuclear bomb, you require uranium-235 enriched to an astounding 90%. Once you have enough of this enriched material, it's game over—the chain reaction results in a massive release of energy that can lead to an explosion. Iran would need to enrich its uranium-235 further for a few more weeks; time and money being the primary obstacles. Galichet cautions that the second part—militarization and bomb development—is a whole different ball game. It demands additional skills, and the process could take even longer.
Iran: A Nuclear Power Since the 50's? The Truth Behind the Myth
Let's delve into the facts. Galichet refers to the latest figures from the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) reported on May 17, 2025. The agency shows Iran enriching uranium to 60%. Galichet posits that Iran has been a de facto nuclear power since the 1950s, possessing the necessary skills and already having civil nuclear power. However, whether it will remain civil or divert towards a military program remains to be seen.
Regarding the National Security Advisor's claims of a two-week timeline, Galichet deems it an emotional ploy to emphasize the urgency of the situation. Finally, the researcher reminds us that while a nuclear bomb is a potent weapon, it's seldom used. Since the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, no leader—be it democratic or dictatorial—has opted to deploy a nuclear weapon again. It is the political will to use the bomb that decides its fate, not just possession.
The Intricacies of 90% Enrichment
To clarify, Iran can currently produce approximately 34 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% per month. It has already accumulated around 275 kg of such enriched uranium as of March 2025. Enrichment from 60% to 90% is a faster process than starting from natural uranium, so estimates for Iran to reach bomb-grade uranium range from a few months to about a year. However, experts note that Iran has been "a few months away from the nuclear bomb for many years," meaning that exact timing is difficult to pinpoint.
In conclusion, while Iran is on the brink of reaching the critical 90% enrichment level—and thus weapons-grade uranium—in a matter of months, the exact timeframe remains uncertain and is a subject of ongoing debate among experts and officials. The international community acknowledges Iran's progress but has not publicly specified an exact countdown for 90% enrichment.
- Emmanuelle Galichet, a seasoned researcher in French science, discusses the complexity of Iran's nuclear program, stating that while Iran has enriched uranium to 60% and is de facto a nuclear power since the 1950s, the second part, militarization, and bomb development is a whole different ball game that requires additional skills and could take even longer.
- Despite claims of a two-week timeline for Iran to manufacture a nuclear bomb, Emmanuelle Galichet, a nuclear physics expert from the Conservatoire national des arts et métiers (Cnam), argues that it's the political will to use the bomb that decides its fate, not just possession, comparing it to the use of atomic bombs following the events of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
