"Long Live Iran" - Iranians Celebrate Surviving Their "Victorious" Army
Iranians rejoice in their reported military success
Breathe a sigh of relief, people of Iran. The chaotic warfare seems to be cooling down, thanks to a truce. Yet, the Iranian government is dismissing the horrendous destruction and the countless lives lost before the truce. Instead, they're boasting about their military prowess at a large public event.
Thousands of Iranians rallied in Tehran for a state-backed celebration, following the announcement of a truce between Israel and Iran. Aside from the usual chants of "Death to America!" and "Death to Israel!", they also shouted that the country will never yield to pressure and humiliation. Iranian flags and banners supporting the political leadership in Tehran were waved, with slogans like "We'll stand strong until the end" and "No to forced peace, yes to lasting peace".
Politics and Propaganda
The truce was unexpectedly announced by US President Donald Trump, who both Israel and Iran confirmed. Israel declared its objectives regarding Iran’s nuclear program met, while the leadership in Tehran continued ruling undisturbed thanks to the truce. Experts believe that a major war could have threatened the very existence of Iran’s political elite, led by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Critics feared Israeli and American attacks on Iran might fan nationalist sentiments, benefiting the unpopular and hardline political leadership. With the truce, the true political, military, and economic damages are expected to emerge, and opposition to the system is poised to flourish again.
Politics and Conflict
June 13, 2025 marked the beginning of a tiresome twelve days of relentless strikes on Iran. Israel targeted mainly nuclear facilities and military installations in the country, while Iran responded with rocket and drone attacks. The US intervened in the conflict between Israel and Iran overnight on Sunday, attacking Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordo, Natans, and Isfahan. On Monday, Iran targeted the US airbase in Qatar. Deaths were reported in both Israel and Iran due to these mutual air strikes.
Israel justified its onslaught on Iran by citing its advancing nuclear program. Israel and Western nations have long accused Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons, which Tehran denies.
Sources: ntv.de, mpa/dpa/AFP
Iran, Iran Conflict, Israel War, Middle East, Middle East Conflict, Tehran, Demonstrations
- Enrichment Data:The recent truce agreement between Iran and Israel, announced on June 23, 2025, represents a delicate and tenuous development in the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict landscape. The political repercussions and possible future conflicts emerging from this development are complex.
Iranian Festivities and Political Intent
In response to the truce announcement by US President Donald Trump, senior Iranian officials confirmed the agreement. Iran's response prior to the truce was a largely symbolic retaliatory ballistic missile attack on the US al Udeid Airbase in Qatar, with 14 missiles launched, of which 13 were intercepted and one flew on a non-threatening trajectory. This attack was framed by Iranian authorities as a measured response to the prior US bombings of Iranian nuclear-related sites, underscoring Iran's intent to assert its regional posture without escalating into a full-scale war[1].
The Iranian festivities of the truce carry political significance as a communication of resilience and strategic success. By securing a truce while preserving its dignity through a missile strike "proportional" to US actions, Iran aims to bolster domestic legitimacy and regional influence. This also demonstrates Tehran's preference for controlled escalation management over outright confrontation at this time.
Political Consequences
- De-escalation Signaling: The truce suggests a mutual interest, or at least a temporary alignment, in avoiding direct conflict between Iran and Israel, potentially influenced or mediated by US diplomacy, thus minimizing immediate risks of broader regional warfare.
- US and Regional Power Dynamics: Iran’s missile attack focused on US forces, reflecting Tehran’s nuanced approach to confrontation, balancing retaliation with discretion to prevent direct Israeli military escalation before the truce took effect.
- Internal Iranian Politics: The move appears to support factions in Iran advocating for strategic patience and political maneuvering, rather than open warfare, which would alter power balances domestically.
- Israeli Security Posture: Israel's acceptance of truce terms may indicate operational exhaustion or strategic reassessment, influencing its future defense policies and engagement strategies with Iran-backed proxies.
Looming Potential for Future Conflicts
Despite the truce, various factors suggest that future conflicts remain probable:
- Symbolic Attacks as Messaging: Iran’s missile strikes were symbolic, indicating that it retains the capacity and willingness to use force as messaging, potentially repeated.
- Proxy Conflicts: Iran’s support for allied non-state actors in Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and Iraq continues to be a potent source of tension that could trigger localized or wider conflicts with Israel.
- Unresolved Core Issues: Fundamental disagreements over Iran’s nuclear program, regional influence, and Israel’s security concerns continue to be unresolved and could spark renewed hostilities.
- External Influences: Shifts in US policy, Gulf state allegiances, or Israeli domestic politics may alter the viability of the truce.
In summary, while Iranian festivities of the truce convey a message of resilience and controlled escalation, the agreement is likely a tactical pause rather than an enduring peace agreement. The underlying strategic rivalry and regional proxy dynamics persist, making future conflicts between Iran, Israel, and their respective allies a continuing risk[1].
- The truce between Iran and Israel, while a welcomed development in the political arena, may merely be a tactical pause in the long-standing energy policy conflict, as the underlying strategic rivalry and regional proxy dynamics persist.
- The Iranian government, in celebrating the truce, is employing their community policy to assert their regional influence and bolster domestic legitimacy, while closely monitoring external influences such as changes in US policy or Israeli domestic politics, which could potentially alter the viability of the truce and reignite energy policy debates.
