Iran will stand strong against the proposed corridor planned by the Azerbaijan-Armenia agreement, as declared by officials.
In a significant geopolitical shift, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) is set to reshape the Caucasus region. This new corridor, brokered under a U.S.-backed regional deal, promises to strengthen Azerbaijan's ties with Turkey and establish a major East-West trade axis, dominated by the U.S. and its allies.
The agreement, signed by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in the White House, aims to bypass Iran and reduce its influence in the region. The corridor would run across southern Armenia, providing Azerbaijan a direct route to its exclave of Nakhchivan and to Turkey.
However, the future of TRIPP is uncertain. Iran, which views American presence so close to its border as a major security threat, has threatened to block the corridor. Tehran’s leadership has expressed concern over its influence and security in the region.
Moreover, the peace treaty and corridor implementation depend on constitutional amendments in Armenia. These face fierce opposition from Russia-backed parties, diaspora groups, and clerical circles that reject the Western-backed peace agenda. Upcoming parliamentary elections in June 2026 may see a pro-Russian faction rise, potentially derailing TRIPP.
Russian influence and presence in Armenia also complicate the corridor’s operation and the balance of power in the region. Russia maintains deep economic and security ties in Armenia, including border guards along Armenia’s frontier with Iran.
Analysts and insiders suggest that Iran, under mounting U.S. pressure over its disputed nuclear program and the aftermath of a 12-day war with Israel in June, lacks the military power to block the corridor. Yet, Iran's top adviser to the supreme leader, Ali Akbar Velayati, has warned that the corridor will not become a passage owned by Trump, but rather a graveyard for Trump's mercenaries.
Despite these challenges, Azerbaijan's ambassador to Britain, Elin Suleymanov, remains optimistic. He predicts that the wider region's prosperity and transport links will be transformed for the better. Suleymanov also played down suggestions that Russia is being disadvantaged by the agreements.
The only obstacle to a final peace deal, according to Suleymanov, is for Armenia to amend its constitution to remove a reference to Nagorno-Karabakh. Once this commitment is fulfilled, Azerbaijan is ready to sign a peace deal.
The U.S. would have exclusive development rights to the corridor, intended to facilitate greater exports of energy and other resources. Azerbaijan's close ally, NATO member Türkiye, has welcomed the accord.
Moscow, however, has proposed implementing solutions developed by the countries of the region themselves with the support of their immediate neighbours - Russia, Iran, and Türkiye - to avoid what it called the "sad experience" of Western efforts to mediate in the Middle East.
In summary, while the TRIPP corridor offers a strategic advantage to the U.S. and its allies by diminishing Iran's influence in the Caucasus, its future is uncertain due to strong opposition from Iran, complex Armenian domestic politics, Russian strategic interests, and unresolved regional tensions.
- The new corridor, known as TRIPP, aims to reduce Middle East's influence in the Caucasus region and establish a major East-West trade axis, dominated by the U.S. and its allies.
- Iran, due to its close proximity to the corridor and mounting U.S. pressure over its nuclear program, views the American presence as a major security threat and has threatened to block the corridor.
- In the Middle East, the policy-and-legislation around the TRIPP corridor faces complex domestic politics in Armenia, with some parties opposing Western-backed peace agendas and potentially derailing the project.
