Iran persists in solitary resistance
Israel's airstrikes on Iran, which began on June 13, were effective but largely ineffective in the long run. They didn't manage to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities or render its army incapable of retaliating. Furthermore, the Iranian government recovered from the initial shock and maintained control and stability in the country. The Israeli-Iranian conflict has now entered a drawn-out phase, akin to a war of attrition. It quickly became apparent that Israel didn't have a Plan B in case Iran decided to resist.
In the end, Tel Aviv found itself in a strategic dead-end and was left with no choice but to seek help from the United States. However, President Trump, with threats looming over Tehran, is hesitant to engage in a war with Iran, which could prove far more complex and dangerous than past American ventures in Afghanistan and Iraq. As of Friday evening, Washington continued to rattle its sabers, but without results.
Exchange of Strikes
The most damaging blow for Iran was the first day of attacks, part of which was carried out from Iranian territory using pre-positioned drones and Israeli agents. Israel eliminated several high-ranking Iranian military commanders, nuclear scientists, and destroyed several missile launch sites and air defense systems. This strike caught Tehran off guard, likely hoping that negotiations with the United States would prevent Israel from attacking.
Additionally, the Mossad's knowledge of the location of the leadership of Iran's atomic energy agency, high-ranking generals in the Iranian army, leading nuclear scientists, and the ability to launch attacks from Iranian territory remind us of the notorious history of Hezbollah with its cellphones filled with explosives. As a result, Iran's air defense was weakened, allowing Israeli aircraft near-total control of the skies. To date, there is no evidence of any Iranian air defense systems shooting down piloted aircraft.
Israel struck nuclear sites in Natanz and Ford, but they are deeply buried underground, and the above-ground infrastructure was likely the only thing that was damaged. An attack was made on a heavy-water nuclear reactor located in Arak (formerly, Araq). According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, at the time of the attack, the reactor was still under construction and did not contain any nuclear material. There was also an attack on the center for nuclear technology in the city of Isfahan. In addition, Israel claimed an attack on the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant (being built by Russian specialists), but later retracted this claim. The IAEA also reported the destruction of two facilities in Tehran related to the production of centrifuges for enriching uranium.
The Israeli Air Force attacks both military and civilian targets, administrative buildings in the capital and other cities, warehouses, and even a residential neighborhood where the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is rumored to be hiding.
At the same time, over the course of a week of hostilities, Israel only destroyed one oil refinery and one gas field, even though oil and gas exports are critical sources of revenue for Iran. A major oil refinery was also destroyed in Tehran. This restraint may have been due to concerns that the destruction of Iran's oil and gas infrastructure could lead to the complete blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the oil sectors of American allies in the region.
The damage suffered by Iran is immense, but it is unlikely to force the regime to capitulate. Additionally, Iran's military has stored its ballistic missiles in underground and mountainous bunkers, so it retains the option to retaliate.
The first three days saw Iran launch around 100 missiles per day at Israel, but the number quickly dropped to 10-25. However, the effectiveness of their use increased. NBC News cited an unnamed Israeli intelligence official who stated that the effectiveness of Israeli air defense has dropped from 90% to 65% in recent days and the time of the incoming missile's flight has been reduced from 10-11 minutes following the alert to 6-7 minutes. This suggests that Iran may be using faster, potentially maneuvering missiles, which are harder to intercept.
However, the claim of a 90% success rate in Israeli air defense in the first few days is likely an exaggeration, as there have been reports of numerous Overflights of Israeli territory and chaotic and inaccurate missile interceptions by local air defense systems.
According to Israeli intelligence, prior to the military conflict, Iran had around 2,000 ballistic missiles, of which around 500 had already been fired at Israel, and a part of which may have been destroyed during Israeli attacks on the Israeli military. This leaves Iran with possibly over 1,500 ballistic missiles, and there is a possibility that Iran continues to produce them, moving their production to underground locations.
Iran is firing missiles and drones at Israeli military and intelligence targets, military bases and factories, and even residential neighborhoods. A local oil refinery has been attacked but continued to operate. A significant number of Iranian missiles are striking residential areas in Israeli cities, but civilians manage to reach bomb shelters after the alert.
This is why there is a significant difference in casualties on both sides: as of June 20, around 700 people have been killed in Iran and about 2,000 injured, while in Israel, there have been 25 deaths and approximately 600 injuries.
Potential for Further Strikes
Israel's defense system consists of three layers: the "Iron Dome," designed to intercept relatively simple unguided munitions like "Grad" rockets; the "David's Sling," capable of intercepting medium-range ballistic missiles; and the "Arrow," designed to intercept long-range ballistic missiles before they reach an altitude of 100 kilometers.18 June reports from Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and Israeli Marker suggest that if the tempo of Iranian attacks continues, Israel will run out of rockets for the "Arrow" defense system within 10-12 days. Typically, for every Iranian ballistic missile, three interceptor missiles are required, meaning that Israel's air defense system may have already used over 1,500 "Arrow" missiles. The production of "Arrow" missiles is a joint venture with the United States, and its quantities are kept a secret. However, judging by the production rate of the more simplistic "Patriot" defense system, which has an annual production of around 500 missiles, the production rate of the "Arrow" system is likely much lower, and it is possible that it is only a fraction of the "Patriot" rate.
The US has already come to Israel's aid and provided, according to various estimates, one or two THAAD systems that can intercept long-range ballistic missiles. However, the cost of firing a THAAD missile is astronomical: estimates range from $12-20 million per missile, and the supply is limited. The US has always had a considerable stockpile of missiles for defense, but in the past three years, a significant portion has been shipped to Ukraine.
Therefore, the future trajectory of the conflict between Israel and Iran depends largely on whether Iranian missiles or Israeli air defense will run out first. Additionally, there are concerns about how long Israel will be able to continue striking Iran at the current tempo. The Israeli military has already used a large amount of munitions in attacks on Gaza and Lebanon and has been dependent on American ammunition supplies for over a year.
But if Israel runs out of missiles, it still has the option of launching ground operations. However, the success of such operations would depend on Israel's ability to overcome Iran's underground defenses, which have proved to be highly effective in resisting previous attacks. A failed ground operation would likely result in heavy Israeli casualties. In the past, Israel has attempted ground operations against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon but had to withdraw due to high casualties. A ground operation against Iran would likely have even more significant implications.
In conclusion, Israel is currently in a difficult position and is formulating its next moves with a mix of limited options. Iran is working to mitigate the damage and restore its strategic capabilities, while the US is assessing its level of involvement in the conflict. Israel is suffering significant losses, while Iran is stubbornly carrying on, with the hope that the relative calm will allow it to regain its nuclear capabilities. The situation remains tense, and the outcome is uncertain.
- With Israel running out of Arrow missiles, the US might deploy additional THAAD systems to aid Israel's defense against Iran's long-range ballistic missiles.
- Amidst the ongoing conflict, the general news continues to report the strategic struggle, as both Israel and Iran seek to maintain their political standpoints, with Iran resiliently rebuilding its nuclear facilities and military capabilities, while Israel plans its next moves, potentially considering ground operations.
