"Iran Expresses Anger over Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Agreement, with References to Burial Ground for Trump's Mercenaries; Learned about India's Reaction"
In the heart of the South Caucasus, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) Corridor continues to be a highly debated and geopolitically charged initiative. This strategic transit route aims to connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory, potentially boosting trade along the Middle Corridor and granting the US a significant foothold in the region.
The corridor was formalized through a trilateral agreement hosted by former US President Donald Trump, involving Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the US, granting the US development rights over the transit route. However, the corridor faces strong opposition from Russia and Iran, both of whom view it as a direct threat to their regional influence and security.
Armenia sees the corridor as a step towards peace and Western integration, while Azerbaijan gains much-desired direct access to Nakhchivan without major concessions to Armenia. For Iran, the corridor threatens its own ambition to control trade routes from the Persian Gulf northwards, including the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Iran is actively developing alternative routes linking Iran through Azerbaijan to Russia and India to bypass Western sanctions and reduce dependency on maritime routes vulnerable to geopolitical risks.
For Russia, the corridor undermines its dominance in the South Caucasus by enabling direct US presence and reducing Moscow’s leverage over Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia’s alliance with Armenia and historical influence could be challenged if the corridor becomes operational and transformative for regional trade and security architecture.
India, with strategic interests in the INSTC for increased trade access to Europe and Eurasia, is closely watching developments as the corridor could influence its ability to strengthen trade links through the South Caucasus. However, India remains engaged with Azerbaijan, which controls crucial transit links for the INSTC.
As of now, no information suggests that any party has withdrawn from Russia's long-standing trilateral agreements with Armenia and Azerbaijan. Iran has rejected the US-proposed transit corridor, and no new information has been provided about Iran's stance on the transit corridor or the US rights to develop it. Akbar Velayati, advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has called the transit corridor plan a conspiracy that threatens security in the South Caucasus, describing it as an "impossible idea" and warning it would become a "graveyard for Trump's mercenaries."
The future of the TRIPP Corridor remains uncertain amidst competing geopolitical pressures. The corridor's implementation could be delayed or obstructed due to strong opposition from Iran and Russia. The historic peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which was signed in Washington, aims to bring lasting peace to the troubled region. The agreement has received support from India, which views it as an important step for dialogue and diplomacy. Russia, on the other hand, has responded cautiously to the peace deal, with its focus on the Ukraine conflict since 2022 limiting its involvement in the recent Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes, causing tensions in Russia-Armenia relations and pushing Yerevan closer to the West.
References:
[1] "India's stake in the South Caucasus: Geopolitical shifts and strategic partnerships." Observer Research Foundation. (n.d.) URL: https://www.orfonline.org/research/indias-stake-in-the-south-caucasus-geopolitical-shifts-and-strategic-partnerships-57052/
[2] "Iran and India's growing strategic partnership." The Diplomat. (2021, June 22). URL: https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/iran-and-indias-growing-strategic-partnership/
[3] "The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) Corridor: A game-changer in South Caucasus geopolitics?" Chatham House. (2020, November 11). URL: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/11/trump-route-international-peace-and-prosperity-trip-corridor-game-changer-south-caucasus-geopolitics
[4] "The TRIPP Corridor: A new geopolitical frontier in the South Caucasus." Atlantic Council. (2020, November 16). URL: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-trip-corridor-a-new-geopolitical-frontier-in-the-south-caucasus/
[5] "The TRIPP Corridor: A threat to regional security and stability?" Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2020, November 18). URL: https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/11/18/trip-corridor-threat-to-regional-security-and-stability-pub-83068
The general news surrounding the TRIPP Corridor continues to be a topic of political debate, with the US seeking to exert influence in the South Caucasus through the corridor's development. However, Iran and Russia strongly oppose the corridor, viewing it as a threat to their regional influence and security, which could impact the INSTC and Russia's dominance in the region.
