Investigative Analysis by Donovan: Insights Not to be Gleaned from the Recall Outcomes
Taiwanese Voters' Disillusionment with Main Political Parties Persists
Taiwanese voters continue to express cynicism towards the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT), as both parties have failed to transcend partisan gridlock and have been perceived as engaging in self-serving and manipulative tactics rather than genuinely addressing public concerns.
Recent developments, such as the consideration of new legislative leadership within both parties, could signal a shift towards addressing this disillusionment. The KMT, for instance, has hinted at avoiding the nomination of ex-convict Fu Kun-chi as their legislative leader, while the DPP may steer clear of Ker Chien-ming.
The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), initially seen as a promising “third force” offering pragmatic governance and focusing on everyday issues, has disappointed many voters by aligning closely with the KMT and obstructing the DPP government, a move interpreted as sabotage rather than principled centrism. Recall campaigns have further exacerbated this cynicism, with the DPP-orchestrated attempts to regain control of the legislature overwhelmingly rejected by voters.
The recall efforts were seen as "top-down purges" disguised as democracy, intended to silence opposition and create a legislature without meaningful checks and balances. The way these campaigns were conducted, framed as purges aligned with "anti-China" rhetoric and mobilizations, led many to perceive the parties as engaging in cynical power struggles rather than sincere governance, deepening public disillusionment.
However, the recall results showed definitively that Taiwan is not an authoritarian state, with none of the 25 recall motions passing. Swing voters played a crucial role in the elections of Ko Wen-je as independent mayor of Taipei and the landslide victories for Ma Ying-jeou in 2008 and Tsai Ing-wen in 2016 and 2020.
As the DPP plans their primaries for next year's local elections for later this year, and the KMT's chair election is coming up in October, both parties have an opportunity to address voter concerns and regain trust. A significant segment of the electorate does not particularly like either the KMT or the DPP, and it is crucial for these parties to consider the reasons why many voters are suspicious of them and make necessary changes.
For instance, the DPP could consider not packing the government with figures from the New Tide faction, a move that may help to alleviate voter suspicions. The KMT, on the other hand, could push for increasing defense spending to 3.5 percent of GDP and take a firmer stance on Taiwan (or Republic of China) sovereignty, measures that may help to reassure voters concerned about national security.
In conclusion, the persistent political gridlock, manipulative tactics by both major parties, and recall campaigns perceived as misusing democratic mechanisms to entrench partisan dominance have contributed to the public's disillusionment. Both the DPP and the KMT have an opportunity to address this disillusionment by making necessary changes and demonstrating a commitment to genuine democratic deliberation and reform.
Policy-and-legislation changes within both major political parties in Taiwan, such as the KMT's possible avoidance of nominating ex-convict Fu Kun-chi as their legislative leader and the DPP's potential decision to not pack the government with figures from the New Tide faction, could be crucial steps in addressing the general-news issue of voter disillusionment. The actions taken by these parties in policy-and-legislation and politics will significantly influence public perceptions and trust.
