Strife as Sparks for Unrest: An Examination of Conflict's Catalysts in Germany
Investigation Authority Demanded to Prepare a Statement Regarding National Condition
Germany, in the year 2024, witnessed a surge in extremist activities, as reported by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV). This escalation can be partially attributed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the turmoil in the Middle East, and the surge of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
As per the BfV's annual report, both right-wing extremists and "Reichsbürger", as well as left-wing extremist groups, are gaining traction. The report reveals a concerning reversal in the Islamist scene's trends.
The Rising Tide of Right-Wing Extremism: The Role of the AfD
The BfV observed a significant rise of around 23% in right-wing extremist potential within a year, reaching 50,250 individuals. This increase can be partly attributed to the surge in AfD members. In 2024, the BfV classified the AfD as a case of suspicion, a classification subject to a legal dispute. Currently, the party has approximately 50,000 members, as stated by the party itself in November. The BfV report states: "The AfD, in terms of its political and societal effects and membership numbers, is the main actor within the right-wing extremist or right-wing extremist-suspected party spectrum."
Over 15,000 Violence-oriented Right-Wing Extremists: A Growing Menace
In 2000, the number of right-wing extremists recorded by the BfV was 50,900 individuals. However, the proportion of right-wing extremists deemed violence-oriented was lower than it is today. The number of right-wing extremists assessed as violence-oriented increased last year, reaching 15,300.
The BfV also observes an increase among the so-called "Reichsbürger" and self-governors. In 2024, the number of people in this category increased by 1,000 to around 26,000. "Reichsbürger" reject the Federal Republic of Germany as a state and challenge democratic and rule-of-law structures such as parliament, laws, and courts. They refuse to pay taxes, social security contributions, or fines.
A Dangerous Reversal among Islamists: An Uptick in Radicalization
After a slight decline in previous years, Islamist groups are experiencing a slight increase. The Islamist potential rose by nearly four percent to 28,280 individuals. The violence-oriented Islamist potential, a new category in this annual report, is estimated by the security authority to be 9,540 individuals.
The Middle East Conflict: A Recruiting Ground for Extremist Ideologies
Both in the Islamist scene and in the field of "foreign-related extremism," the suffering of the Palestinian civilian population in the Gaza Strip has provided a breeding ground for various groups to recruit new supporters. In the right-wing scene, the domestic intelligence agency observed the instrumentalization of the Middle East conflict for the dissemination of "xenophobic and anti-Semitic positions."
The Divide among Left-wing Extremists: A Polarized Response to the Middle East Conflict
The left-wing scene is divided on this issue. Autonomous left-wing extremists mainly advocated pro-Israeli positions less publicly, while anti-imperialist and dogmatic left-wing extremists advocated pro-Palestinian positions more visibly and in the majority.
A Sobering Warning: The Potential for a New Wave of Left-wing Terrorism
While the number of left-wing extremists increased from 37,000 to approximately 38,000 in 2024, according to the BfV, the number of violence-oriented left-wing extremists remained at 11,200. The domestic intelligence service warns that if the radicalization of individuals or structures continues unchecked, a new wave of left-wing terrorism could emerge in Germany, posing a threat to self-proclaimed "fascists" and potentially leading to further violence against the state and police.
Russian Espionage and Sabotage: A Growing Concern
In 2024, the domestic intelligence agency reported a significant increase in indications of possible sabotage incidents. These activities, carried out mainly by so-called low-level agents, can be attributed to or suspected of being linked to Russian intelligence services and include espionage, propaganda activities, and incidents such as attempted or actual arson and vandalism.
Insights from Enrichment:
- The AfD and Extremism: The rise of the AfD resembles historical patterns where conservative and extremist groups have coalesced, such as the collaboration between conservatives and the Nazi Party in the 1930s.
- Geopolitical Implications of Russian Actions: Germany's response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including military rearmament and support for Ukraine, has geopolitical implications that may indirectly fuel nationalist sentiments within Germany.
- Domestic Political Divisions: The Russian invasion of Ukraine has also exposed internal divisions within German political parties, as seen in the debate over sanctions against Russia among parties like Die Linke (The Left).
In the realm of general news, the rise of the Alt-Right in Germany, spearheaded by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, has contributed significantly to the escalation of right-wing extremism, according to the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution's annual report. Moreover, the landscape of crime and justice in Germany reveals a concerning surge in violence-oriented right-wing extremists, estimated at over 15,300 individuals.
