Last Stand: Ukraine's Fight Against Russia in the Absence of US Support
Invest faith in the incoming German Chancellor
As Russia flexes its muscles on Ukraine's borders, experts in Kyiv are strategizing ways for Ukraine to survive the defensive war without the US, turning their focus towards a potential new ally in Chancellor Merz. But is a victory possible without the full might of the western alliance?
A Tough Battle Awaits
"We're fighting a brutal war at the front," says former President Poroshenko at the Kyiv Security Forum. "We're lacking not just manpower but also technology, ammunition, and weapons - especially air defense." He admires Chancellor Merz for his commitment to strengthening Germany's role in Europe, understanding that it's not just about aiding Ukraine, but bolstering European security overall.
While tanks parade in Moscow to celebrate victory over Nazism, experts in Kyiv are grappling with how to survive the ongoing offensive from Russia. Trump's unpredictable policies have left cracks in the western alliance, but Ukraine refuses to accept this fate. The Kyiv Security Forum is a platform for diplomats, academics, and politicians to discuss ways to save Ukraine and restore global order.
The Road to Victory
Ukraine's former Prime Minister, Yatsenyuk, draws parallels with World War II. He warns that appearing to appease Hitler in Munich in 1938 set the stage for catastrophe. Today, Putin plays by different rules, adept at hiding his true intentions. He warns China and the Global South that neutrals are complicit, and true peace can only come through unwavering support for Ukraine.
Experts like Volker, Trump's former Ukraine envoy, argue that Putin will never accept peace. They advocate for military deterrence instead of trying to negotiate. Trump's government has placed immense pressure on Ukraine, but little on Russia. Increased pressure on Moscow is essential to change Putin's calculus and move Russia towards a ceasefire.
The Power of Drones
Ukraine's military is increasingly reliant on drones for essential intelligence and strike capability. Commander Shutenko insists Ukraine needs a scalable drone production and continuous supply of drones to win the war. Military technology development is happening at breakneck speeds in Ukraine, thanks to the necessity to survive. Only the most advanced technologies can protect soldiers' lives and give the allies a competitive edge, from Germany to Portugal.
However, according to Commander Shutenko, drones alone won't win the war for Ukraine. Well-trained infantry and attack units are vital, but so is continuous international support - diplomatically, with sanctions, and militarily, with air forces and artillery. "We're taking on one of the mightiest armies in the world here in Ukraine," says Shutenko. "If we prevail, we'll inflict such losses on the Russians that they'll beg for negotiations."
The Role of Diplomats and Allies
Negotiations have not gone well for Ukraine. Kazdobina, director of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Research, says that the US has made poor decisions in trying to achieve peace. "They seem to treat both sides equally, ignoring the fact that Russia is the aggressor and the aggression is deliberate," says Kazdobina. Making concessions to Russia will only embolden them, harming Ukraine in the end.
Kazdobina believes that other European countries are already at war, even if they're only experiencing hybrid attacks. She demands that Putin be held accountable for his actions. In an ideal world, US aid would not run out. Experts see the resource agreement with the United States ratified by the Ukrainian parliament as a positive step, but recommend that Kyiv also have a 'Plan B.'
- Attack on Ukraine
- Ukraine
- Russia
- Friedrich Merz
- Ceasefire
- Arms Delivery
- Donald Trump
- Vladimir Putin
- Allies
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To strengthen Ukraine's defense against Russia, diversifying military assistance, integrating with the European defense industry, enhancing cybersecurity and intelligence sharing, and employing innovative warfare tactics are critical strategies. Germany and European countries can play pivotal roles by increasing military aid, developing a united European deterrent, advocating for Ukraine's interests, expanding military training missions, and providing economic support. Collaborating on these fronts could help Ukraine fend off the Russian aggression and protect its sovereignty.
- To address the lack of manpower and necessary equipment in Ukraine's military, former President Poroshenko emphasizes the importance of seeking support from potential new allies like Chancellor Merz, recognizing that not just Ukraine's victory, but European security overall is at stake.
- As tensions escalate between Ukraine and Russia, experts worry that the ongoing offensive might become a war in the absence of US support, and are discussing ways to save Ukraine and restore global order at events like the Kyiv Security Forum.
- With diplomatic negotiations failing, some experts argue that military deterrence is the only way to pressure Putin and bring Russia to the negotiating table, and that increased pressure on Moscow is essential to change Putin's calculus and move Russia towards a ceasefire.
- Ukraine's military is heavily reliant on advanced technology like drones, but Commander Shutenko insists that while drones are crucial for both intelligence and strike capability, well-trained infantry, attack units, and continuous international support are also essential for Ukraine to win the war against Russia.
