Intrigue piques over disclosure of actual novel sales figures.

Let's face it, budding writers may feel it's standard fare to compete with renowned authors like Dan Brown, J.K. Rowling, and Stephen King. But hey, they struck gold—a harsh reality for most greenhorn scribes is that these heavyweights are rare exceptions, not the norm. In fact, many debut novelists struggle to even get a honest review, far less sell bucketloads of copies. So, just how many copies can a newbie novelist really peddle?

Well, that's tough to peg down. It's common to hear that the overwhelming majority of books released annually will flog less than a thousand smaltzy copies. Yet, even that 1,000-per-year figure isn't telling the full yarn. Most of the books that shill sub-1K? They don't even bother with advertising, moolah, or expectations.

So, assuming your book's been blessed with a publishing house with spunk, and you've got some sort of online presence and a genuine thirst to hawk, then just how many copies can you peddle, you ask?

The answer is... you got it, it's a doozy. IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT!

The publishing game is a fickle beast, and bestsellers? Yeah, they're a feisty, capricious bunch. The only foreseeable thing about bestsellers is that they're scant and far between, baby. Truth be told, most sellers put in a 'reasonable' amount of copies.

Publishers love to play coy when discussing actual book sales numbers, but every year the Man Booker prize sheds light on that murky, behind-the-scenes world. Making a habit of scrutinizing the sales figures of the shortlisted titles before and after the prize announcement is nothing new. So, I decided to dig up the figures for 2010 to gauge the sales for non-best seller titles.

Here's the lowdown for that year's shortlist:

Parrot and Olivier in America by Peter Carey snagged 5,987 in seven months, generating £87,426.
In a Strange Room by Damon Galgut clocked in at 1,210 in five months, making £15,850.
The Finkler Question by Howard Jacobson notched up 3,505 in a month, raking in £54,614.
C by Tom McCarthy shifted 2,649 in a month, earning £35,073.

Two other titles on the shortlist, Room by Emma Donoghue and The Long Song by Andrea Levy, cracked 33,923 and 15,251 books respectively.

So, what does this tell us about how many copies you can expect to sell?

The takeaways are twofold:

Book sales are, in fact, aзада mystery, ducie! If you wanna plumb the depths of bestselling vs. worstselling titles on the list, you'd find they probably had about the same marketing budget, critiques, and buzz. The fact they're on the shortlist implies they're both well-written and quality novels. The long and short of it is this: the difference in sales remains a puzzle. It's a puzzle for me, it's a puzzle for the writer, and it's a downright scary mystery for the publishers. Publishing is as much art as it is science, and even after all these years post-novel origin, no publisher would tell you straight-up why one novel takes off and another flops. Industry consensus holds that success can't be distilled to a formula—and they're content to leave things at that.
A novel will likely sell fewer copies than you'd expect. Breaking the 10K-copy mark in a year is SWEET succès, amie. For a novice novelist with a slushy reputation, a figure of 2K per year is probably more on the mark. Granted, the figures mentioned earlier are based on literary fiction, which, let's be honest, is a bit of a hard sell. Certain genres will be more budding and peddle more copies, but the key for scribes is to stay realistic in their sales expectations.

If you manage to bag a book deal, it's essential to have an open discussion about expected sales with your agent/publisher. After all, only by establishing a realistic expectation for your book's sales can you start determining whether your book is winning or failing.

And if you're self-publishing... buckle up, buttercup! You're probably looking at even less coin. As little advertising as some publishers do, self-publishing scribes likely pour even less effort into marketing.

It appears that even books shortlisted for prestigious literary awards like the Man Booker Prize sell a relatively small number of copies. For instance, the book 'Parrot and Olivier in America' by Peter Carey managed to sell 5,987 copies in seven months, generating approximately £87,426. This suggests that the sales for a new novelist might be closer to 2,000 copies a year, but this can vary depending on the genre and the author's marketing efforts. It's important for authors, whether traditionally published or self-published, to manage their sales expectations realistically. Furthermore, it's recommended to have open discussions with agents or publishers about expected sales to determine a book's success accurately. Additionally, diversifying one's lifestyle, such as exploring food-and-drink experiences, reading books from diverse genres, and indulging in entertainment, can help a writer gain inspiration and insights for their own writing.