Intersection of Past and Present: Elucidating Modern Chaos through Political Ideologies
John Doe"The wheel of history spins, and winter is certainly on the horizon."
William Strauss' chilling words encapsulate the essence of generational theory – a cyclical interpretation of history where societies experience phases of rise, fall, and catastrophic crises before resurrection. In 1991, Strauss, alongside Neil Howe, published Generations, a book that introduced the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory. This theory implies a continuous influence between generations and the historical periods they endure. The events and cultural forces that shape the era have a profound impact on the generations maturing within it, and these generations, in turn, shape the trajectory of future eras.
Strauss himself stated, "Life and time are mutually dependent. If one is seasonal, then the other must be."
The Strauss-Howe Generational Theory categorizes four eras, or "turnings," each lasting approximately 21 years, where a new socio-economic climate comes to fruition. Each turning shapes the generation sprouting during that era, reinforcing this cyclical pattern of history. The grand finale of a saeculum, or completed cycle, culminates in a crisis, named the "Fourth Turning." This climactic turning brings change so drastic that a completely new cycle commences.
The Strauss-Howe framework proposes that the world we currently inhabit is either in the midst or on the brink of the tumultuous "winter" of this cycle, characterized by economic struggles, social fragmentation, and the ever-present threat of international conflict. The chaos of today appears strikingly similar to thepatterns of past Fourth Turnings, hinting at an impending seismic societal transformation. But should winter truly here, what lies ahead, and who will be the architects of the spring that follows?
Strauss-Howe Generational Theory
In the late 1980s, historians William Strauss and Neil Howe teamed up to comprehend an intriguing question: Why did the Boomers and the G.I.s (part of the "Greatest Generation," characterized by their experiences in World War I and II), perceive the world so differently despite being neighbors in terms of generation? Through meticulous research, published in Generations, they identified a recurring cycle of four generational archetypes – Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist – formed by four "turnings." This theory serves as the foundation for their generational theory, which claims that history unfolds in predictable, seasonal flows. This piece aims to unravel each turning, the generations they give birth to, and the context of the most recently completed saeculum, the Great Power Saeculum (1865–1946), as well as the current Millennial Saeculum (1946 ~ 2034).
The First Turning – Bloom
Built upon the foundations of the Crisis, the Bloom is an era of renewed stability, conformity, and institution strength that follows a major crisis or Fourth Turning. People, in search of security, order, and progress, aspire to rebuild themselves and their institutions after escaping from the chaos of the crisis. Institutions are generally trusted, and individualism is cast aside in favor of collective well-being – all measures taken to distance from previous crises. A spirit of optimism and expansion permeates the air as society places a premium on civic cooperation, traditional family structures, and conformity.
The American society, following the crisis of the Civil War, embarked on an era of reconstruction and expansion. The Gilded Age saw rapid industrial growth, solidifying the power of institutions, and promoting everything "traditional," including gender, racial, and social class conformity. However, the underlying class tensions and the seeds of future labor unrest lurked beneath the surface.
This era has the most significant impact on the generational archetype; the Prophet. Prophets grow up as ensconced children in the stable, ordered world of the Bloom. As they have the opportunity to dream from the comfort of prosperity, they develop an idealistic outlook. Once they come of age, they reject the conformity of the Bloom, driving the cultural revolutions of the next turning.
The Second Turning – Awakening
Forged by the Prophets of the Bloom, the Awakening is an era of cultural revolution and upheaval, marked by widespread disillusionment with the conformity of the Bloom. Individualism surges, prompting people to reject their institutions and question societal norms. Established figures of authority are scrutinized, giving way to the emergence of countercultural movements driven by idealism and morality. The environment is rife with tension and emotional volatility as society distances itself from crisis incidents and prioritizes personal freedom over collective unity.
In the United States, the Awakening encompassed two distinct periods, the Reformation and the Conscious Revolution. After the stability of the Reconstruction Era in the Gilded Age, society witnessed numerous progressive reform movements, such as women's suffrage, labor activism, and muckraking journalism, which exposed corporate corruption. This awakening weakened faith in existing institutions, setting the stage for political and social change.
A few decades later, the Boomer generation led the free-thinking Conscious Revolution. This unprecedented generation debuted in the form of civil rights protests, feminist movements, the gay rights movement, and anti-war initiatives in reaction to events such as the Vietnam War. They had the unique advantage of being supported by the institutions of the Bloom – the Golden Age of Capitalism – granting them the audacity to examine the world around them without the constraints of conformity and inhibitions.
These periods of transformation have the most significant impact on the generational archetype: the Nomad. Nomads grow up as "neglected" children in a fragmented world where the traditional conformity of family is reinvented. As skeptical and self-reliant adults, they develop a keen awareness of the institutions that surround them. The skepticism and independence of Nomads enable them to thrive in an era of political polarization and decreasing trust.
The Third Turning – Fragmentation
Incepted by the Nomads of the Awakening, the Fragmentation era is characterized by further institutional decay, an escalation in individualism, and social disintegration. Society, still recovering from the rebellion of the Awakening, becomes increasingly cynical of the institutions it once revered. The dissent is deep-rooted, giving rise to political factions and an atmosphere of division. The peak of individualism cultivates a consumerist and self-focused culture, along with widespread cynicism.
The Fragmentation embodies two distinct periods in American history – World War I and the Neoliberal Era. Following the Reformation, the Roaring Twenties showed a surge in consumerism, financial speculation, and emotional skepticism. The Jazz Age celebrated individualism and materialism while corruption and organized crime flourished. This consumeristic, fragmented era was abruptly terminated with the stock market crash of 1929, marking the arrival of the following turning, Crisis.
In the Neoliberal Era, which followed the Social Awakening, the United States experienced heightened political polarization, a widening wealth gap, and institutional decay. Reaganomics drove the rapid deregulation of industries, favoring individual wealth over collective welfare. Compounding this was the devastating impact of the September 11 attacks and the subsequent War on Terror. This ongoing diffusion continues to this day, with institutions seemingly crumbling under the weight of corruption and neglect.
These phases of disunion significantly shape two generational archetypes – the Hero and the Artist. In a fragmented society, Heroes mature with relentless determination to reestablish order. In the face of crisis, they distinguish themselves as self-sacrificing civic leaders, driving social renewal and institutional rebuilding. The Artist, on the other hand, is a child in this era, born sheltered and cautious, forging a cooperative worldview under the watchful eyes of older generations. The Heroes and Artists prepare for the next transition, starting the cycle anew.
Strauss says, "During each of these previous Third Turnings, Americans felt as if they were drifting towards a catastrophe. And, as it turned out, they were."
The Fourth Turning – Cataclysm
Driven by an accumulation of events throughout the saeculum, the Fourth Turning arrives – Cataclysm.
A Cataclysm is a time of existential threat and societal breakdown but also eventual rebirth. It follows the chaos of the Fragmentation, as weak institutions falter under the weight of corruption and decay. Society is now focused on survival, unity, and determination. Individualism wanes as people establish shared bonds through mutual struggle. Strauss states, "A Fourth Turning offers people of all ages what is literally a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to heal – or destroy – the very heart of the republic."
According to Strauss and Howe, the Great Depression and World War II represent the most recent Cataclysm in American history. During this time, society grappled with economic collapse, fascist threats, and worldwide war. The G.I. Generation, who were then young adults, fought with selfless resolve, while older generations guided them through the turmoil. In the crucible of crisis, a new civic order emerged: the welfare state, the United Nations, and a rules-based international system rose from the ashes. This post-war reconstruction set the foundation for the subsequent Bloom, but only after immense suffering and sacrifice.
These epochs of chaos primarily shape the archetypes of the Hero and the Artist. The Heroes, now adult, carry their resolve in the challenging times of crisis, while the younger Artist archetype is sheltered and cared for by older generations, cultivating a cautious and cooperative worldview. The Heroes lead society through the crisis, allowing the Artist to rebuild for the Bloom of the next saeculum, heralding the start of a new cycle.
In 1997, Strauss wrote, "Before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II."
Currently, the world stands upon the precipice of this historic gate. The 2008 financial collapse, combined with escalating societal fault lines, highlights the instability of the present landscape. Widespread dissatisfaction with governments and the media, burgeoning political divisions, and mounting geopolitical tensions echo the conditions of previous Cataclysm eras. The COVID-19 pandemic, public protests, and the looming threat of international conflict serve as the tremors of a society under stress. The disparity in leaders during Cataclysm eras is notable, and this period necessitates strong, unifying figures to navigate these tumultuous times.
Strauss observes, "Authoritarian government isn't dead; it's just hibernating, poised to return during the Fourth Turning, rested and revitalized."
In the cyclical nature of theory and history, such chaos often precedes profound transformation or renewal. In reflecting on this theory, it is essential to recognize the impact of today's leadership on our future. As the world treads toward this watershed, one cannot help but speculate who might emerge as the unlikely savior or the ruthless tyrant that will guide humanity through the flames of adversity.
"The farther you look back, the farther you can see ahead." – John Keats
If this axiom holds true, and a glimpse into the past illuminates the path ahead, this turmoil will pave the way to a new boom. This epoch of hardship will spawn a new bloom, an era of harmony, reformation, and collective purpose. The generations destined to navigate our darkest chapters will ultimately become the architects of a brighter tomorrow.
The years to come demand courage, resilience, and cooperation. Burdened with broken institutions, the young will be tasked with their repair. Crisis lessons will foster new leaders, innovators, and reformers. Though the road ahead will be arduous, history teaches us that from every winter springs new life. Society's greatest triumphs often emerge from its darkest hours.
In her somber concluding speech following her presidential defeat in 2024, Kamala Harris invoked words that have resonated with leaders of change throughout history: "Only when it is dark enough can you see the stars."
John Doe
- The Strauss-Howe Generational Theory, as Rachel Thompson elaborates, proposes that history follows a cyclical pattern of turning points, with each era shaping the generational archetypes that emerge.
- Leading the cultural revolution during the Awakening era, the Boomer generation, such as John Lennon and Martin Luther King Jr., questioned societal norms and championed social change, as described by Richard Rouse in his editorial piece.
- As traditionally conformed children within the Bloom era, Prophets, like Greta Thunberg and Malala Yousafzai, have an idealistic outlook, driving global movements such as climate activism and women's rights, according to the analysis of Nicholas Tagliani in his opinion piece.
- Samantha Greenberg, in her cultural commentary, discusses how the Hero archetype—characterized by an unrelenting determination to reestablish order—emerges during the Fragmentation era, as demonstrated by the likes of Winston Churchill and Mahatma Gandhi during World War II.
