International Relations: Putin's Setbacks Signal a Grave Opportunity for China's Influence
In the complex world of international relations, the Middle East has been a hotbed of activity in recent years. This region has seen significant events that have underscored the need for nations to reassess their relationships, particularly with Russia.
In June 2025, US and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities sparked criticism in Tehran. However, Moscow, a long-time ally of Iran, limited itself to rhetoric and did not provide military aid in response. This incident, among others, has raised questions about Russia's reliability as a partner in times of crisis.
The weakening of Bashar al-Assad, Russia's key ally in Syria since 2015, has further diminished Moscow's leverage in the region. The United States, UAE, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia have expanded their presence around strategic areas such as the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, taking advantage of the power vacuum left by Russia.
Russia's diplomatic approach has shifted from soft power and cultural diplomacy to a more militarized, transactional model involving arms-for-access deals. This change has complicated Russia’s relationships and revealed tensions with former partners, such as Azerbaijan, undermining Moscow's image as a reliable regional partner.
The removal of veteran diplomat Mikhail Bogdanov, an influential figure in Russia's Middle East diplomacy for over two decades, also signals evolving Russian strategic priorities that may reduce consistency and reliability in its regional engagements.
These developments have implications for China in the context of potential conflicts over Taiwan. China and Russia often align diplomatically in international forums, but Russia's weakening position and the erosion of its reliability as a stabilizing partner in the Middle East could impact China’s strategic calculations. For instance, China has provided material support to Iran and has cautious relations with various Middle Eastern actors. China's involvement appears motivated by strategic interest in leveraging regional instability to counterbalance U.S. influence.
If Russia’s influence in key regions like the Red Sea corridor is diminished due to these diplomatic and military shifts, China may face additional geopolitical pressure and fewer reliable allies in its broader competition with the U.S., including its stance on Taiwan. For China, instability in the Middle East, combined with Russia’s reduced effectiveness as a partner, could complicate its efforts to challenge U.S. influence globally and manage conflicts over Taiwan, as it may have to navigate a more contested and multipolar environment where the United States and regional powers are asserting stronger roles.
Meanwhile, Russia has positioned itself as a stable partner and an alternative to the US intervention in the Middle East. However, its failure to support its allies in the region, such as during the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023, has dealt a significant blow to its reputation as a major player. This failure has eroded trust and caused other autocracies to question their relationships with Moscow.
In Israel and Saudi Arabia, disappointment with Russia's actions grew. The Middle East crisis has highlighted Russia's diminishing influence in the region, as it is rapidly losing ground and being overshadowed by other players. Over the past two decades, Russia, under Putin, has established close ties with Iran, Syria, Israel, and Arab monarchies in the Middle East. Yet, these relationships seem to be faltering due to Russia's shifting foreign policy following the Ukraine crisis.
In conclusion, the questioning of Russia's reliability in the Middle East reflects Moscow’s recalibrated and less predictable regional strategy post-Ukraine, weakening its partnerships and strategic leverage. This erosion indirectly affects China by reducing the maneuvering space and stability in regions where China seeks to expand influence and complicates the strategic environment around Taiwan by potentially limiting coordinated Russia-China counterbalancing against the U.S.
- The incident involving US and Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, and Russia's limited response, has fueled speculation about Russia's reliability in general-news, particularly in the volatile politics of the Middle East.
- China's strategic calculations in the context of potential conflicts over Taiwan could be impacted by Russia's diminishing influence and increasing instability in the Middle East, a region where both countries have stakes, as Russia's reliability as a partner has come under question.
