International policy dilemmas for Prime Minister Mark Carney, independent of Donald Trump's influence.

Hitting the Ground Running: Prime Minister Carney's Foreign Policy Challenges

OTTAWA — New Prime Minister Mark Carney is diving headfirst into the international arena, tackling a plethora of foreign policy dilemmas that stretch beyond the realm of U.S. politics. Here's a rundown of the six major issues Carney will navigate in the coming months as world politics ride a volatile wave.

Trump's G-7 Visit

In just six weeks, Carney hosts the Group of Seven (G-7) leaders' summit in Kananaskis, Alberta. The gathering includes Donald Trump, as well as world leaders from France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, Italy, and the European Union.

The 2018 Canadian G-7 summit saw Trump refusing to sign the communique, storming off early, and labeling his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, "very dishonest and weak" in a spat over steel and aluminum tariffs. Carney is working to engage Washington in this year's gathering, with maritime security as a shared concern among the G-7 countries. Expect discussions on "shadow fleets," undersea cable sabotage, illegal fishing, biodiversity loss, and shared oceans.

Carney must also decide which countries and institutions to invite as guests, with South Africa hosting the G20 summit in November and potential inclusion on the guests list. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is already on the guest list.

NATO and European Defense

Carney's attendance at the annual NATO military alliance summit in June is crucial, especially given allegations that Trump has undermined the alliance by suggesting the U.S. might not defend countries that don't meet defense spending targets.

Canada has yet to meet the NATO defense spending guideline of 2% of GDP since the alliance agreed upon that goal in 2006. The summit also occurs amid concerns about Russian aggression, with fears Russia could acquire more territory in Ukraine and invade other countries, such as Latvia, where Canadian troops are serving as part of a mission aimed at deterring Russian aggression.

Europe is working to boost defense spending and military industries, aiming to make the continent less reliant on the U.S. Carney has stated his intention to be part of this project, once referred to as ReArm Europe, and has described Canada as "the most European of non-European countries."

China and Canada

During his campaign, Carney characterized China as "the biggest security threat to Canada," citing Beijing's tacit support for Russia's invasion of Ukraine, foreign interference, and Arctic issues. China rejects these claims, instead emphasizing the desire to partner with Canada to counter U.S. bullying.

This partnership has proven challenging, with China imposing tariffs in retaliation for Canada following the U.S.'s lead on restrictions on electric vehicles and steel. While China has increased Canadian oil imports, reaching an historic high in March, Carney has signaled caution about relying too heavily on the relationship, expressing a desire to diversify with "like-minded partners."

Reviving Ties with India

Late in 2022, the Liberals identified India as a key focus for their Indo-Pacific strategy, touting India as a democratic nation with significant trade potential. However, this relationship soured in June 2023, following the assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia.

Accusations of Indian involvement in Nijjar's death and ongoing RCMP investigations have strained relations between the two nations, with India being described as "our biggest problem" by the Indian foreign minister and accusations of enablement of a separatist movement calling for a Sikh homeland known as Khalistan.

Carney, however, has expressed a desire to pursue trade with India, with the potential to play a role in resolving trade wars.

Expanding Trade

Canada and the UK have been operating under a pared-down trade agreement since Brexit, with negotiations on a full agreement halted due to Canadian reluctance to open up the dairy sector and British distaste for hormone-treated beef.

Although trade talks appear unlikely to progress if these issues are not addressed, Carney has hinted at a fresh approach this year, with changes potentially coming in the form of new UK and Canadian diplomatic appointments.

Aid and the Global South

Carney has vowed to maintain and possibly increase Canada's foreign aid spending, contrary to trends among Western countries. As aid agencies face the possibility of mass layoffs and food aid shortages in refugee camps, Carney's approach to foreign aid remains uncertain.

While his Africa strategy was criticized for its late release and lack of new funding for initiatives aimed at boosting investment and trade with Africa, Southeast Asian leaders hope Carney will follow a more proactive approach and attend the annual summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) bloc—an organization that declared Canada a strategic partner in 2023.

Middle East Policy

Carney can be expected to follow Justin Trudeau's approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict, an approach that has been criticized by Jewish, Muslim, and Arab groups for its vagueness. Recent tensions in Canada, including large protests and an increase in hate crimes, serve as a reminder of the complexities surrounding Carney's approach to the Middle East.

Carney has also indicated his intention to call out Iran for destabilizing the Middle East through proxies like Hamas.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is anticipated to maintain or increase foreign aid spending, contrary to the trend among many Western countries.
Carney has hinted at a fresh approach for trade negotiations between Canada and the United Kingdom, following the Brexit trade agreement.
Canadian troops are serving as part of a mission aimed at deterring Russian aggression in countries such as Latvia.
Carney is working to engage Washington in this year's G-7 meeting, focusing on maritime security as a shared concern among the G-7 nations.
The 2018 G-7 summit saw Donald Trump refusing to sign the communique, storming off early, and labeling Justin Trudeau as "very dishonest and weak."6.Accusations of Indian involvement in the assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia have strained relations between Canada and India.
Canada has yet to meet the NATO defense spending guideline of 2% of GDP since the alliance agreed upon that goal in 2006.
Carney has expressed a desire to diversify trade relations with "like-minded partners," signaling caution about relying too heavily on the relationship with China.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is already on the guest list for the upcoming G-7 summit, and Carney must decide which countries and institutions to invite as guests.
The media will closely follow Carney's approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict, with recent tensions in Canada serving as a reminder of the complexities surrounding his Middle East policy.