International negotiations led by the U.S. for a ceasefire in Ukraine appear to hold potential for Russia, yet ambiguous cues arise among participants
SPEAKIN' WITH TRUMP: RUSSIA'S UPPER HAND IN UKRAINE?
TALLINN, Estonia - The dialogue has taken place on cold, polished marble floors, under the detailed paintings of St. Peter's Basilica, and in a famously tense session within the Oval Office of the White House.
What's transpired so far from Trump's diplomatic endeavors to end the war in Ukraine reveals a deal favoring Russia: President Donald Trump has sharply reprimanded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, echoed Kremlin talking points, and implied that Kyiv would need to relinquish territory and forego NATO membership. Plus, he's engaged in an unusual alliance with Moscow – something unthinkable just months prior.
Now, Trump has offered conflicting signals - social media jabs that perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin is fooling Trump - and a deal hasn't been brokered yet.
Yet, the stage seems set primarily for the Kremlin. Regarding the meeting, Nikolay Petrov, senior research fellow with the New Eurasian Strategies Centre think tank, puts it plainly: "Washington is talking to Moscow again after years of strained ties following the 2022 annexation of Crimea."
This renewed dialogue isn't just focused on the war – Russian officials and state media, from the get-go, underscored the vastness of their agenda with Trump's officials. For example, they discussed the Middle East, preventing the proliferation of strategic weapons, and even ice hockey matches between the countries.
In essence, Petrov asserts that "Putin already got a part of what he wanted – the impression of Russia as a country equal to the U.S."
Trump indicated that Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, "will stay with Russia." Outlines of a peace proposal reportedly presented to Kyiv last month allegedly included allowing Russia to maintain control of other occupied Ukrainian territories. Trump criticized Zelenskyy for publicly rejecting the idea of ceding land and also suggested that Kyiv was unlikely to ever join NATO.
These points long surfaced as Moscow’s talking points, and Trump's use of them reflects a shared vision between the Kremlin and his administration.
Trump also appears to be putting more pressure on Kyiv to reach a peace deal and seems eager to return to a more normal relationship with Russia and its "big business opportunities."
But It Ain't Over Till It's Over
Despite the Kremlin's current upper hand, nothing solid has materialized beyond blustering discussions.
Historian and professor Sergey Radchenko claims that terms of a possible settlement are "still very much in the air." Furthermore, there remain demands by both Russia and Ukraine that would be hard to reconcile in any kind of peace settlement.
Ukraine flatly refuses to cede any land and wants robust security guarantees against future aggression, possibly through international peacekeepers. Russia demands continued control over the territories it has seized and an end to NATO membership for Ukraine.
Radchenko labels the latter as a significant obstacle in the peace talks, as a strong, capable army is essential for Ukraine to defend itself.
"If there are restrictions on the kinds of weapons Ukraine can receive or the size of its army, then it will be difficult to get them to accept this kind of agreement."
Russian Roulette
Analysts believe that Putin may be prolonging the war and making gains on the battlefield. If Trump were to abandon the peace effort, some speculate that this could be advantageous to Putin.
However, if the Trump administration steps away from negotiations and continues supporting Ukraine, it remains uncertain what happens next. Greene notes that Ukraine doesn’t feel confident that the U.S. will maintain its backing in the absence of their involvement, while Russia may not be sure if the Trump administration will slash aid either.
In the end, it's a major challenge for the Kremlin to calculate the risks of a protracted conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov raised the stakes further by stating that international recognition of annexed regions from Ukraine by Russia is "imperative" for a peace deal. However, achieving such recognition remains uncertain given that dozens of countries have decried the annexations as illegal under international law.
[1] Washington Post[2] Reuters[3] Financial Times[4] Wall Street Journal[5] Foreign Policy
- In a turn of events, the dialogue between Trump's administration and Russia, most recently taking place in the hallowed halls of St. Peter's Basilica, seems to favor Russia in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
- Trump's diplomatic approach, including public criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and echoing Kremlin talking points, implies that Kyiv might need to relinquish territory and forgo NATO membership.
- Remarkably, Trump has offered contrasting signs, hinting at possible deception by Russian President Vladimir Putin, yet no concrete deal has been reached.
- Experts, such as Nikolay Petrov from the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, assert that these renewed talks between Washington and Moscow, strained for years following the 2014 annexation of Crimea, signal a shift in the political landscape.
- The agenda under discussion stretches beyond the war in Ukraine, touching upon topics like the Middle East, weapons proliferation, and even ice hockey matches.
- Despite Russia's current upper hand, the terms of a possible settlement remain uncertain, with both Ukraine and Russia holding demands that may prove challenging to reconcile in any peace agreement, such as Ukraine's refusal to cede any land and Russia's insistence on maintaining control over occupied territories.
