International Military Exercise Zapad-2025 - A Display of Aggression by Russia
In September, Russia and its allies will launch the much-anticipated Zapad 2025 military exercises. This year's drill raises three central questions: whether Russia is using Zapad to mask potential military preparations, what its military capacities are given the continuing war in Ukraine, and how it fits into the bigger geopolitical picture.
The exercises will involve military units from Russia, Belarus, and a number of allied countries, including Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Congo, Mali, India, Iran, Niger, China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Vietnam, and others. There have been no confirmed indications of another nation joining beyond these participants.
Russia's relationship with China has been under scrutiny, with China claiming neutrality on the war in Ukraine but not condemning Russia's aggression and supplying significant military aid to the Kremlin. Lt. Gen. Lance Landrum, a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), argues that it is unlikely for China, Russia, and North Korea to develop an alliance like NATO or the previous Axis Powers.
The deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council recently claimed that Finland was preparing for war. The Lithuanian military expects the total number of participants in the region for Zapad-2025 to be around up to 30,000 soldiers, although the exercise is officially expected to involve only 13,000 troops. Analysts caution, however, that the real number is likely to be far higher.
Regardless of its size, Russia is once again turning its eyes toward its NATO neighbors. The Vienna Document of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) requires mandatory observation for military exercises involving more than 13,000 troops. The 2011 Vienna Document was invoked during Zapad 2013, when Moscow claimed 12,800 servicemen participated on Belarusian territory.
Zapad 2025 may provide crucial signals about Moscow's military readiness and the evolving geopolitical alignments shaping Eurasia. Russia and Belarus recently appeared in a military parade in China, demonstrating their growing ties to Beijing. The first public meeting between China's Xi Jinping, Russia's Putin, and North Korea's Kim Jong Un occurred at a military parade.
Lt. Gen. Landrum, who was Deputy Chair of NATO's Military Committee (2021-2023) and was also the United States European Command Director of Operations, J3 (2020-2021), cautions that the apparent alliance between China, Russia, and North Korea should be treated with skepticism. Heine Sandvik Brekke, an Editorial Intern at CEPA, shares similar sentiments. Brekke, who has worked in a variety of editorial roles, including at the daily newspaper Aftenposten, and served in the Norwegian Army as a conscript in Northern Norway, urges vigilance in the face of these shifting alliances.
Lt. Gen. Landrum's company, Team Landrum Advising and Consulting, LLC, provides strategic advice on executive-level leadership, developing enterprise strategy, and forming implementation plans. Heine Sandvik Brekke is currently studying at the American University in Washington, D.C.
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