International Climate Talks in Brazil Face Stress Amidst US Absence

The upcoming COP30 conference, scheduled for late 2025 in Belém, Brazil, is shaping up to be a significant event in the global fight against climate change. Under the presidency of Brazil, the conference is being framed as a "Summit of Solutions," emphasising collective, people-centred climate action guided by the Brazilian cultural framework of mutirão[1][4].

The focus of COP30 is on delivering on the global stocktake outcomes, with a particular emphasis on forests, resilience, and enabling finance and technology[2][5]. The agenda prioritises pragmatic action and trust-building to overcome recent geopolitical stalemates, focusing on key thematic areas such as stewarding forests, oceans, biodiversity, agriculture, and resilience, alongside cross-cutting support in finance, technology, and capacity-building[2][5].

International and Brazilian civil society engagement is pronounced, particularly in the elevation of Indigenous voices and the integration of health concerns into the climate agenda. Initiatives like the Belém Health Action Plan will be launched, setting strategic lines in health surveillance, policy, and innovation to tackle climate-related health inequities[3]. Pre-COP events have highlighted the centrality of Indigenous participation and local solutions in climate negotiations, ensuring the people-centred approach is embedded in the outcomes[3].

The UNFCCC plays a crucial role in addressing climate finance and reform at COP30. The organisation will facilitate the Action Agenda's sixth thematic axis dedicated to unleashing enablers such as finance and technology. This aligns with calls for stronger transparency, monitoring, and accountability mechanisms to build trust among stakeholders and achieve scaled implementation[2][5]. Brazil’s presidency views finance reform and equitable funding as integral to delivering climate solutions that also foster human and social development[2][5].

Belém’s selection as the venue for COP30 underscores a focus on nature-based solutions like halting deforestation, restoring ecosystems, and strengthening indigenous land rights. This venue choice aims to ground the conference in realities where climate risk, poverty, and biodiversity collide, setting the stage for practical solutions and equitable financing[4].

However, challenges remain. The rules for bilateral CO2 trading under Article 6.2 are weaker and lack transparency and oversight[6]. The EU's decision to rely on certificates from international carbon markets for its 2040 climate target has attracted criticism[7]. There is also a risk that market-based approaches will be introduced through the back door at the interim negotiations in Bonn in 2025[8].

Climate finance remains a focus of the debate in Belém, with hopes for more concrete results from COP30 after the COP29 agreed on a new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG) of USD 300 billion per year by 2035[9]. Many observers are hoping for a significant increase in adaptation funding in particular, for example a tripling of funding by 2030 as requested by developing countries[9].

The Fund for responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) established at COP28 is significantly underfunded and is expected to present a long-term fundraising strategy before COP30[10]. There is a renewed push for a gender action plan (GAP) at COP30, but financing issues and resistance from some governments on key issues such as the recognition of unpaid care work, intersectionality, and gender-diverse terminology are present[11].

The link between climate finance and the level of ambition of national efforts is important, as many countries in the Global South are making the level of ambition of their national efforts dependent on financial support from the historical perpetrators of the climate crisis[12]. The report from the ICJ opens the door to issues of liability and reparations, which have met with resistance in climate negotiations from the biggest contributors to the climate crisis[13].

In summary, COP30 in Brazil aims to rebuild momentum, deliver tangible progress, and advance just transitions in the global climate agenda. The conference is expected to occur without the participation of the United States, which has the greatest historical responsibility for global greenhouse gas emissions[14].

References: 1. UNFCCC COP30 2. Brazil's COP30 Presidency Priorities 3. Indigenous Participation at COP30 4. Belém as COP30 Venue 5. COP30 Agenda 6. Article 6.2 and CO2 Trading 7. EU's Relyance on International Carbon Markets 8. Market-Based Approaches at COP30 9. Climate Finance at COP30 10. Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage 11. Gender Action Plan at COP30 12. Climate Finance and National Efforts 13. ICJ Report and Liability 14. US Participation at COP30

The upcoming COP30 conference, under the Brazilian presidency, aims to integrate health concerns, Indigenous voices, and a focus on gender equity into the climate agenda, as demonstrated by initiatives like the Belém Health Action Plan and the renewed push for a gender action plan.
The emphasis on forests, resilience, and enabling finance and technology at COP30 underscores the significance of science and environmental-science in addressing climate-change, with the UNFCCC playing a crucial role in facilitating these discussions and the Action Agenda's focus on finance and technology.
Despite the focus on collective, people-centered action, challenges remain in the form of weaker rules for bilateral CO2 trading, the EU's reliance on international carbon markets, and the risk of market-based approaches being introduced at COP30.
The selection of Belém as the venue for COP30 is intended to ground the conference in realities where climate risk, poverty, and biodiversity collide, with a particular focus on nature-based solutions like halting deforestation, restoring ecosystems, and strengthening indigenous land rights.
As the US remains absent from COP30, there is a pressing need for other nations to deliver tangible progress and advance just transitions in the global climate agenda, while addressing issues of liability and reparations as outlined in the ICJ report.