International Climate Talks in Brazil Face Intense Scrutiny Following America's Absence at COP30
The upcoming COP30, scheduled for November 2025 in Belém, Brazil, is shaping up as a significant moment in international climate negotiations. With high expectations for progress, enhanced civil society engagement, and potential UNFCCC reforms, the conference promises to be a critical forum for climate diplomacy.
The COP30 presidency is planning to launch the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), a new financing tool for forest protection in tropical countries. This facility aims to conserve hectares of forest, with returns from investments used to make annual payments to countries with tropical forests. The TFFF will not be funded by revenues from carbon compensation for fossil emissions, but instead, it will be a public-private investment fund that invests in government bonds and other assets.
Negotiations at COP30 will focus on several key areas. At the June 2025 Bonn negotiations (SB62), parties discussed the Global Goal on Adaptation indicators, the implementation of the Global Stocktake outcomes, and the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP). The results were satisfactory and set a foundation for COP30 goals. Brazil's presidency emphasizes the need to build a global "infrastructure of trust" through collaborative task-force style working and aims to advance the Global Mutirão against climate change, focusing particularly on just transition matters.
Challenges remain, as recent COP29 outcomes on international climate finance were disappointing, and the absence of the United States from COP30 negotiation processes (although their withdrawal from the Paris Agreement becomes effective January 2026) adds complexity to multilateral dynamics. COP30 seeks to markedly improve civil society participation, contrasting with restrictive environments at previous COPs held in authoritarian contexts. This includes strengthening freedom of expression and assembly around the COP venue in Brazil.
There is growing discourse on reforming the UNFCCC to increase effectiveness, enhance civil society participation, and reduce fossil fuel industry influence. The Brazilian presidency acknowledges these calls and invites reflection on the future of the UN climate process. Brazil has proposed a new Climate Change Council as a potential governance innovation, but its absence from recent negotiation debates casts doubt on its immediate prospects.
COP30 is expected to be a forum for critical reflection on the UNFCCC’s past processes and the potential to innovate governance structures while urging enhanced transparency, accountability, and inclusivity from negotiators and stakeholders alike. Despite geopolitical challenges and a funding crisis in the UNFCCC, Brazil’s COP30 presidency is positioning itself as a bridge for multilateralism and constructive climate diplomacy amid rising calls for reform and with a special focus on just transition and adaptation.
The "Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3 Trillion" was launched in Baku, outlining a plan to achieve the larger mobilization goal of 1.3 trillion USD annually, mainly from private sector flows. After the implementation of international carbon markets under Article 6.2 and 6.4 of the Paris Agreement was adopted at COP29, the way is now clear for large-scale climate compensation - so-called offsetting. The EU has decided to use such certificates from international carbon markets to achieve its 2040 climate target, a decision that has drawn much criticism.
The logistics of COP30 in Belém remain uncertain, with exorbitant prices for accommodation and general uncertainty about how the Amazonian city will handle the logistics of the major climate conference event. Questions of financing are controversial regarding the mandate of the gender action plan to address gender equality in climate finance. The focus is on the NDCs submitted ahead of COP30 and the resulting ambition gap between current climate protection efforts and what would be necessary for a 1.5°C pathway.
Despite the United States' absence, COP30 will be the first COP since the start of climate negotiations that the USA - still the country with the greatest historical responsibility for global greenhouse gas emissions - will not participate. COP30 takes place during a time of significant backlash against human rights and gender equality, but there is hope that a new gender action plan can be adopted.
In summary, COP30 in Brazil is set to tackle negotiation progress on adaptation and just transition, seek stronger civil society involvement, and potentially foster reforms in the UNFCCC process, although key proposals like the Climate Change Council remain uncertain at this stage.
- The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), an initiative for forest protection in tropical countries, will be of the sex part of COP30's environmental-science-focused policy-and-legislation discussions, as it aims to conserve hectares of forest and generate returns for annual payments to countries with tropical forests via a public-private investment fund.
- As part of the international climate-change discourse, recent COP29 outcomes on international climate finance were disappointing, and concerns remain about the absence of the United States from COP30 negotiations and the resulting impact on multilateral dynamics.
- In light of the ongoing COP30 discussions and the growing demand for reform, the Brazilian presidency invites reflections on the future of the UNFCCC process, with an emphasis on enhancing civil society participation and reducing fossil fuel industry influence in the environmental-science sphere.
