International Agreement on Climate Change: Evolution Post-Kyoto and Paris Protocols
The implementation of the Paris Agreement, a landmark global climate accord, is ongoing but faces significant challenges in meeting its ambitious goals. While nearly all countries have ratified the agreement and submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), current efforts remain insufficient to fully achieve the temperature goals or a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation.
Global Warming Mitigation and NDCs
Almost all Parties to the Paris Agreement have ratified it, with dynamic obligations to update and increase ambition in their NDCs every five years. The International Court of Justice recently clarified that Parties have a due diligence obligation to submit their highest possible ambition in NDCs to achieve the collective temperature goals of well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C, rejecting the idea that NDCs are at states’ full discretion.
By early 2025, many countries submitted updated or new NDCs, but only a minority increased their ambition. Analyses show that global emissions reductions committed are still inadequate for the Paris goals, with widespread concerns over the gap between promises and action.
Balance Between Adaptation and Mitigation
The Paris Agreement includes provisions to both reduce emissions and enhance resilience/adaptation. Climate finance frameworks under the Agreement aim to support both, but in practice, funding remains skewed. The UNFCCC processes and workplans emphasize integrated support to accelerate nationally determined contributions and national adaptation plans. However, detailed balance and adequacy issues persist.
Climate Finance and Loss and Damage Fund
Financial mechanisms operational under the Paris Agreement are evolving. The agreement intended to mobilize finance for developing countries, including for loss and damage resulting from climate impacts. While some funds and mechanisms exist for mitigation and adaptation, the loss and damage fund—established as part of the 2019 COP25 decisions—faces ongoing negotiations about scale and predictable financing sources and remains underfunded compared to urgent needs.
Role of International Carbon Markets (Article 6)
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement establishes international carbon markets and cooperative mechanisms to facilitate emission reductions through trading. As of mid-2025, activities transitioned from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to the Article 6.4 mechanism are underway, with over 1,300 projects and programs submitted for transition requests. These projects represent potential reductions of around 1.5 billion tonnes of CO2e, with about 60% (900 million tonnes) possibly achievable if approved.
In summary, the Paris Agreement's implementation has established important legal and institutional frameworks and catalyzed global cooperation. However, the effectiveness in meeting its targets depends heavily on increasing NDC ambition, improving access and scale of climate finance (especially for adaptation and loss and damage), and robustly operationalizing market mechanisms. Challenges with ambition gaps and finance shortfalls remain central obstacles for the 2025 implementation phase.
Every five years, there is a global stocktake to review the status of global progress to mitigate the climate crisis and ideally increase efforts and commitments. Loss and damage due to the climate crisis that cannot be avoided despite efforts on emission reductions and adaptation is a growing concern, especially for small island developing states.
The systemic financing gap for adaptation efforts is a significant obstacle to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, as the majority of climate finance flows support emission reductions. Emerging economies such as China, Brazil, and India, and wealthy Gulf states are not prepared to formally commit to more far-reaching multilateral obligations, questioning the basic principle of the UNFCCC of justice and common but differentiated responsibilities of industrialized and developing countries.
The Paris Agreement collectively commits countries to limiting global warming to 1.5°C if possible, but in any case to well below 2°C. The Kyoto Protocol, a binding climate agreement under the UNFCCC, was adopted in 1997 and came into force in 2005 with 192 signatory states. A loss and damage fund was established at COP27, although it remains critically underfunded.
The Paris Agreement sets a global goal of increasing resilience and adaptability of countries and communities to the climate crisis through national adaptation plans (NAPs) by least developed countries, with support from industrialized countries. The UNFCCC Secretariat, based in Bonn, provides organizational and technical support. The most important decision-making body under the UNFCCC is the annual Conference of the Parties (COP), along with two technical subsidiary bodies, the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI).
A detailed list of indicators is being developed to create transparency and accountability for the achievement of the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA). The UNFCCC currently has 197 signatory states. Climate finance is a central element of the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, where industrialized countries are obliged to channel financial support to the Global South for emission reduction, adaptation, capacity-building, and technology transfers.
International CO2 markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement aim to offset CO2 emissions at home with the help of certificates for CO2 reductions achieved elsewhere, but often do not lead to additional emissions reductions and can result in human rights and land rights violations. The climate crisis is repeatedly overshadowed by geopolitics and multiple crises, with current climate policies and actions under existing NDCs resulting in global warming of on average 2.7°C (or within a 2.2°C to 3.4°C range).
The renewed withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement raises questions about the success of climate multilateralism in an era of shifting priorities towards defence spending and energy security.
- The International Court of Justice has clarified that Parties to the Paris Agreement have a due diligence obligation to submit their highest possible ambition in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve the temperature goals of the Agreement, challenging the notion that NDCs are at states' full discretion.
- The Paris Agreement's balanced approach between reducing emissions and enhancing resilience/adaptation faces a significant issue as funding remains skewed, with climate finance frameworks under the Agreement prioritizing emission reductions over adaptation and loss and damage.
- The loss and damage fund, established under the Paris Agreement, faces ongoing negotiations about scale and predictable financing sources and remains underfunded compared to urgent needs, highlighting the challenge in addressing climate crisis-induced losses and damages.
