Intensifying border issues between Thailand and Cambodia cause downfall in Thaksin Shinawatra and Paetongtarn Shinawatra's political standing.
The border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, which erupted in July 2025, has caused a major crisis, affecting both nations militarily, diplomatically, and humanitarianly. The renewed violence, particularly near the Preah Vihear Temple, a historically disputed site, has resulted in at least 38 deaths and displaced over 300,000 people [1][2][3].
The escalation has had significant political repercussions in Thailand, most notably the resignation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Her stepping down reflects the intense political pressure and instability generated by the border clashes [2]. Paetongtarn, who is the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, has been a key figure in the Pheu Thai Party, which is closely linked to the Shinawatra political family.
Thaksin Shinawatra, himself, publicly criticized Cambodia’s leader Hun Sen and called for military action, worsening tensions and highlighting familial and party-related dynamics influencing the conflict’s political environment [2].
The conflict has also intensified personal rivalries involving Thaksin Shinawatra, influencing nationalist politics on both sides [1][2]. The situation remains volatile, with ASEAN and the UN calling for ceasefire agreements to avoid further deterioration. Talks were held in Kuala Lumpur in late July 2025 to negotiate ceasefire terms, which both countries agreed to, though on-the-ground clashes had persisted as of the latest reports [2][3].
The conflict has left a lasting scar on both nations' political establishments, particularly the ruling Pheu Thai Party. The military's performance in defending national sovereignty has regained political capital, which could bolster future efforts to secure increased military funding, especially for air power and advanced weaponry [4].
However, the military's actions are not without criticism. The Thai Air Force has vowed to prioritize civilian safety in F-16 air operations [5]. The Thai Army has also rejected Cambodia's denial of new landmines on the border.
The military's performance could be a test for the civilian government, as they face a storm of overlapping crises including economic stagnation, US trade pressure, inflation, natural disasters, and now war. The perception that both Thai and Cambodian political dynasties may have played a role in escalating the crisis refuses to go away.
Pheu Thai faces an uphill battle in the next election as opponents are unlikely to let the memory of war fade quietly from the public consciousness. The party will need to navigate these challenges carefully to maintain their political standing and address the needs of the Thai people.
References:
[1] BBC News. (2025). Thailand-Cambodia border conflict: What's behind the violence? [online] Available at: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59949720
[2] Reuters. (2025). Thailand's PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns amid border conflict with Cambodia. [online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailands-pm-paetongtarn-shinawatra-resigns-amid-border-conflict-cambodia-2025-07-30/
[3] Associated Press. (2025). ASEAN, UN call for Thai-Cambodia border ceasefire. [online] Available at: https://apnews.com/article/e7f3c8477d5d45d4a4a75651c64b13e7
[4] The Diplomat. (2025). Thailand's Military Gains Political Capital in Border Conflict with Cambodia. [online] Available at: https://thediplomat.com/2025/08/thailands-military-gains-political-capital-in-border-conflict-with-cambodia/
[5] The Nation. (2025). Thai Air Force vows to prioritize civilian safety in F-16 operations. [online] Available at: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30397381
- The political landscape in Thailand has been significantly affected by the border conflict with Cambodia, leading to the resignation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, a key figure in the Pheu Thai Party.
- Thaksin Shinawatra, a former Prime Minister and patriarch of the Shinawatra political family, has publicly criticized Cambodia’s leader Hun Sen and called for military action, worsening tensions and highlighting familial and party-related dynamics influencing the conflict’s political environment.
- The border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has also intensified general news coverage, with reports of ceasefire negotiations, military actions, and humanitarian crises dominating headlines.
