Intense rainfall with minimal occurrence of thunderstorms, accompanied by substantially diminished instances of lightning
In the summer of 2022, Germany experienced a lower-than-average frequency of lightning strikes. According to Nowcast, a total of 563,000 lightning discharges were recorded from January 1 to August 8, 2022. This is a significant drop compared to the previous year, where 813,000 lightning strikes were recorded.
June and July, traditionally the months with the highest number of lightning strikes, saw a decrease in activity. In June, there were 212,000 lightning discharges, a 61% decrease from the average. July followed suit with 182,000 lightning discharges, which is 63% below the average. The lowest value since at least 15 years was recorded from June 1 to July 31, 2022, with 394,000 lightning discharges.
Meteorologist Nikolas Zimmermann from UBIMET attributes the low number of lightning strikes this summer to a lack of large-scale thunderstorm systems in Germany's latitudes. The German Weather Service predicts a new heat wave for the coming days, which could potentially change this trend.
It's worth noting that Nowcast only counts ground lightning, not cloud-to-cloud discharges. All lightning strikes, whether they hit the ground or not, are included in the count. The most lightning discharges in a single day were recorded on June 1, with a total of 43,000 strikes in Germany.
In contrast, the thunderstorm season in Germany typically lasts from May to August. However, the number of lightning strikes recorded from May to July 2022 by Aldis/Blids, another data provider, was not provided.
The amount of rain per square meter in August 2022, according to the German Weather Service, is not yet available. Research indicates that severe thunderstorms and associated phenomena, including lightning frequency, are most frequent over mountainous slopes and plains in Central Europe, including parts of Germany. These areas have experienced a strong past and projected increase in severe convective storm-prone atmospheric conditions due to global warming.
While precise regional strike statistics were not found in the search results, the overall trend in Europe and especially in regions influenced by complex orography (such as Germany) is an intensification of thunderstorm activity, which includes more frequent lightning events. This is consistent with the reported heatwaves and increased atmospheric instability in Europe during recent summers, which provide favorable conditions for thunderstorms and lightning occurrences.
References:
[1] Global warming intensifies severe thunderstorms in Central Europe. (n.d.). Retrieved August 15, 2022, from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-36251-6
[3] Heatwaves and extreme weather events in Europe. (n.d.). Retrieved August 15, 2022, from https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2019/630357/EPRS_BRI(2019)630357_EN.pdf
[4] Climate change and extreme weather events in Europe. (n.d.). Retrieved August 15, 2022, from https://www.ec.europa.eu/environment/climate/adaptation/index_en.htm
Weather-forecasting models predict a new heat wave for the coming days in Germany, which could potentially change the trend of lower-than-average lightning strikes. However, the German Weather Service has not yet released the amount of rain per square meter for August 2022, a factor that could influence weather-forecasting of thunderstorm activity and associated lightning frequency.
