Intense Rainfall, Occasional Thunderstorms: Substantially Lower Lightning Frequency
Lower Thunderstorm Activity in Germany's Summer 2023
Germany's thunderstorm season, which typically spans from May to August, has seen a noticeable decrease in lightning activity this year. This decrease is particularly evident in May and June, with both months recording significantly fewer lightning discharges compared to the average of the past 15 years.
In May, the German Weather Service recorded 118,000 lightning discharges, a 45% decrease from the average. June followed suit, with 212,000 recorded, representing a 61% decrease compared to the average. However, the most lightning discharges recorded in a single day this year were on June 1, with a total of 43,000 strikes.
The trend continued into July, with a 63% decrease in lightning discharges compared to the average. Aldis/Blids, a German lightning tracking company, recorded a total of 23,986 lightning strikes in July, compared to 41,129 in the same month last year. This pattern was also observed by Nowcast, another lightning tracking company, which reported 394,000 lightning discharges from June 1 to July 31, 2023, the lowest value in at least 15 years.
So far this summer, there have been fewer large-scale thunderstorm systems compared to usual. This is consistent with the lower number of lightning discharges. The German Weather Service recorded an average of 114 liters of rain per square meter in July, but last month was without major thunderstorms.
Despite the decrease in lightning activity, it's important to note that the year 2023 is on track to potentially surpass the previous record of 813,000 lightning discharges from 2020. By August 8, Nowcast had counted 563,000 lightning strikes, a testament to the unpredictable nature of weather patterns.
It's worth mentioning that Aldis/Blids only counts ground lightning, not discharges between clouds. The count includes all lightning - both those that struck the ground and those that did not touch the earth.
Looking ahead, the German Weather Service expects a new heat wave in the coming days. However, the factors influencing the lower lightning activity this summer are complex and multifaceted, including reduced convective energy, less favorable conditions for thunderstorm development, weather pattern shifts, natural variability, and climate influences.
References:
[1] German Weather Service [2] Nowcast [3] European Severe Storms Laboratory [4] National Center for Atmospheric Research
The German Weather Service recorded a significantly lower number of lightning discharges in May and June compared to the average of the past 15 years, indicating a decrease in weather-forecasting events such as thunderstorms. Furthermore, numerous lightning tracking companies have reported a lower number of lightning discharges throughout the summer, suggesting a trend of lower thunderstorm activity.
