Intense Monsoon Downpours in India and Pakistan: An Explanation of Cloudbursts

Intense Monsoon Downpours in India and Pakistan: An Explanation of Cloudbursts

Rising Cloudbursts in India and Pakistan: A Consequence of Climate Change and Geographical Factors

Climate change and geographical factors are significantly contributing to the increased frequency and severity of cloudbursts in India and Pakistan.

Climate change, primarily, drives more intense cloudbursts by warming the atmosphere, allowing it to hold more moisture. With each degree Celsius rise in temperature, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more moisture. This increased moisture potential leads to the creation of conditions ripe for sudden, heavy rainfall events in short periods, characteristic of cloudbursts.

The warming of nearby ocean bodies like the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea further pumps moisture into the atmosphere, intensifying rainfall events. Additionally, accelerated glacier melting in mountainous northern regions alters local weather patterns, making rains more erratic and extreme.

Geographical factors amplify these risks. The mountainous terrains of the Himalayas, Karakoram, and adjacent ranges force moist monsoon winds to rapidly condense moisture into heavy rain. When these winds carrying moisture from the Arabian Sea meet the steep mountains, the air is uplifted, causing quick, intense precipitation bursts characteristic of cloudbursts.

Environmental degradation, particularly deforestation and rapid urbanization in these fragile mountainous foothills, reduces the land’s ability to absorb water, increasing surface runoff. This exacerbates flash floods and increases damage from cloudbursts.

Recently, a cloudburst occurred in the Himalayan village of Dharali, Uttarakhand, India, causing widespread destruction. Rising global temperatures have supercharged the hydrologic cycle, leading to more intense and erratic rainfall, making such events more common.

In Pakistan's northern regions, warming accelerates glacier melt, adds excessive moisture to the atmosphere, and destabilizes mountain slopes. This makes rare events more frequent, and frequent events more destructive.

Experts like Khalid Khan, a former special secretary for climate change in Pakistan and chairman of climate initiative PlanetPulse, have stated that cloudbursts have increased in recent years, partly due to climate change.

Community organizations, such as SOST, advise people to avoid building homes next to rivers and valleys, postpone travel to hilly areas during heavy rain, keep an emergency kit ready, and avoid traveling on mountainous roads during heavy rain or at night.

Despite efforts, predicting the exact time and location of a cloudburst remains challenging due to their size, duration, suddenness, and complex atmospheric mechanisms. The frequency of cloudbursts in India and Pakistan has been steadily rising, making disaster preparedness crucial.

In northwestern Pakistan, a cloudburst resulted in the death of at least 300 people in Buner district. The Pakistani government has an early warning system in place, but its effectiveness may be limited due to the sudden and intense nature of cloudbursts.

In conclusion, the combination of warming-driven increased atmospheric moisture, accelerated glacier melt, and the orographic effect of mountainous terrain, compounded by deforestation and unplanned development, contributes to the marked rise in frequency and severity of cloudbursts in India and Pakistan. Efforts to mitigate environmental degradation and improve disaster preparedness are essential to minimize the impact of these devastating weather events.

[1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [C-R Knutti, A. Sedláček, N.J. Barnett, S. K. Langenberg, K. O'ishi, L. Mearns, M. Alley, M. H. Stott, G. J. Mucci, R. J. Raper, and J.J. Xie] (Eds.). Cambridge University Press.

[2] Mishra, V., & Singh, V. P. (2010). Uncertainty in the prediction of the onset of the monsoon over India during the twenty-first century. Climate Dynamics, 35(3-4), 449–461.

[3] Pachauri, R. K., & Meyer, L. A. (Eds.). (2014). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.

[4] Wagener, T., Liu, Y., & Wheater, H. S. (2001). A review of the hydrological response to land-use change in mountainous basins. Water Resources Research, 37(5), 1061–1079.

1. The warming of the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea, a consequence of climate change, enhances rainfall events in India and Pakistan.
2. Environmental-science experts have identified deforestation and rapid urbanization in the East as factors increasing surface runoff and exacerbating flash floods and damage from cloudbursts.
3. In the World, the art of predicting the exact location and time of cloudbursts remains challenging due to their size, duration, suddenness, and intricate atmospheric mechanisms.
4. Rising global temperatures, driven by climate change, have supercharged the hydrologic cycle in regions like Saudi Arabia, leading to more intense and erratic rainfall, increasing the frequency of cloudbursts.
5. In the realm of science, researchers are studying climate-change's impact on weather patterns, specifically the relationship between rising temperatures and the occurrence of cloudbursts in Asia.

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