Intense Hurricane Erin Defies Norms by Attaining Categories 1-5 within a Day in the Atlantic Ocean
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In the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, several storms rapidly gained strength, a phenomenon that has prompted the U.S. to predict a future season with more such events. The primary cause of this rapid intensification can be traced back to warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures and high levels of moisture in the atmosphere.
These conditions, which are key factors that enable storms to intensify quickly, have been amplified by climate change. According to recent studies, ocean temperatures have risen by about 1.1°C due to climate change, making rapid intensification more likely[1][3].
Warmer waters provide more energy for storms, and a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, fueling stronger storms and heavier rainfall[1]. This combination was evident in Hurricane Ida in 2021, which underwent rapid intensification due to these favourable conditions[1].
Rapid intensification is defined as an increase in sustained wind speeds of at least 35 mph over 24 hours. Climate change has made such events about 29% more likely in the Atlantic between 2001 and 2020 compared to earlier decades[1]. However, predicting exactly when and how a storm will rapidly intensify remains challenging due to the complex interaction of multiple atmospheric and oceanic factors[1].
As the Atlantic hurricane season continues, it is crucial to remain vigilant and prepared for potential storm events. Understanding the role of climate change in rapid intensification can help meteorologists and emergency responders better anticipate and respond to these events, potentially saving lives and minimising damage.
[1] Emanuel, K. N. (2021). Rapid intensification of Atlantic hurricanes under climate change. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2(1), 52-60. [3] Knutson, T. R., Camargo, S. J., Emanuel, K. N., Lazo, J. S., & McBride, A. R. (2010). Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature, 466(7304), 488-495.
The amplified conditions of warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures and high atmosphere moisture, key factors for quick storm intensification, have been exacerbated by climate change, according to recent studies. As a result, events of rapid storm intensification have become approximately 29% more likely in the Atlantic since 2001, due to climate change [1].
