Intense hurricane activity anticipated for the rest of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Headline: NOAA and CSU Predict Above-Average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU) have both released updated forecasts for the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, predicting an above-average season with slight differences in the exact number of expected storms and hurricanes.
NOAA's Forecast
NOAA's updated forecast anticipates 13 to 18 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) for the entire season from June 1 through November 30. This update slightly lowers the expected activity compared to their May forecast but still indicates an above-average season with a 50% likelihood of above-normal activity, 35% chance of near-normal, and 15% chance of below-normal. These predictions include the four named storms already formed (Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter).
CSU's Forecast
CSU projects 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes for the 2025 season, including the three storms already formed as of early August (Andrea, Barry, and Chantal). Their forecast is based on multiple statistical and dynamical models considering atmospheric and oceanic conditions such as sea surface temperatures, wind shear, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and historical analog years. CSU’s outlook also suggests slightly above-average activity.
Influencing Factors
Several key weather and climate factors are influencing the updated forecasts, including warming sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic and neutral conditions in the ENSO. However, CSU's forecast has lower-than-normal confidence due to a significant difference in wind speed and direction in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea in June and July.
Upcoming Forecasts
CSU will issue its two-week forecasts from Thursday through the peak of the season. Over the next two weeks, CSU predicts a 55% chance of above-average activity, a 35% chance of near-average activity, and a 10% chance of below-average activity.
Contributors
This report was contributed to by Matthew Glasser, Dan Manzo, Kyle Reiman, Dan Peck, and Sam Wnek.
Current Standings
As of Thursday, the 2025 season has seen four named tropical storms and no hurricanes. The updated forecasts largely track along with the May predictions, according to Matt Rosencrans, the lead hurricane season forecaster at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The next named storm in line is Erin.
[1] NOAA's 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook [2] CSU's 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook [3] Andrea [4] Barry [5] Chantal [6] Dexter
- The weather-forecasting by NOAA and CSU indicates an above-average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, with slight differences in the predicted number of storms and hurricanes.
- Climate-change factors like warming sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic and neutral ENSO conditions, along with atmospheric and oceanic conditions, influence the updated forecasts for the season.
- Environmental-science research, such as that conducted by CSU, relies on multiple statistical and dynamical models to project the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes for the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
- Weather forecasts, like those from CSU, provide updated predictions over the season, aiding in disaster preparedness and response to minimize environmental impact from extreme weather events like hurricanes.
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