Intense conflict breaks out in Nagorno-Karabakh, occurring while Armenia and Azerbaijan work towards achieving peace negotiations.
On June 28, the unofficial government of Nagorno-Karabakh reported a devastating loss, with four soldiers meeting their end in a brutal Azerbaijani assault using artillery and drones. The previous day, Azerbaijan claimed a soldier from their side had been wounded by firing from the Karabakhi Armenian forces. However, the Artsakh Defense Army denied these accusations, branding them a precursor for Azerbaijan's attack.
Claims of ceasefire violations by Azerbaijan on June 27 by Karabakh officials preceded this fatal incident. These escalations have become common lately, with both sides trading accusations recorded by the Russian peacekeepers' daily bulletins. In several instances, the Armenian side has alleged civilians getting shot by Azerbaijani combat units while working in bordering villages, a charge Azerbaijan vehemently denies.
The defense minister of Azerbaijan, speaking on June 26, adopted a tough stance against the Artsakh Defense Army, referring to them as a collection of "unauthorized military units." According to Zakir Hasanov, the minister claimed that they had assessed the capabilities of these units and were confident in resolving the issue should they resort to provocations or illegal actions.
Armenia has pledged to withdraw all its troops from Karabakh by September 2022. However, the de facto administration of Nagorno-Karabakh retains its own armed force, the Artsakh Defense Army. Before the 2020 war, conscripts from Armenia served in and around Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan justifies its six-and-a-half-month-long blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh by stressing the need to block arms supplies to the Karabakh Defense Army from Armenia. However, tensions on the ground intensified just as foreign ministers from Armenia and Azerbaijan convened in Washington for talks involving a comprehensive peace agreement aimed at resolving their long-lasting rivalry.
On June 27, US Secretary Anthony Blinken announced the start of the latest round of negotiations, expressing support for both nations working together towards a permanent and dignified agreement. Yet, two separate tracks of talks, one mediated by the U.S. and EU and the other by Russia, have shown little progress in recent months.
After an EU-mediated meeting in May, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for the first time explicitly stated Armenia's willingness to recognize Azerbaijan's control over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the biggest obstacle in these negotiations is the fate of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia and Western mediators seek international guarantees for the safety of the Karabakhi Armenians once under Azerbaijani rule, a demand that Azerbaijan fiercely opposes, considering it an internal matter. Many Armenians fear that the establishment of Azerbaijani sovereignty may result in "ethnic cleansing."
While Baku appears unrushed to reach a permanent settlement with Armenia, Tigran Grigoryan, an analyst from Nagorno-Karabakh, believes that the timing of the latest incident conveys a clear message from Azerbaijan: "if you refuse to make concessions during the talks, we will force them on the ground."
There is a dispute between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia regarding how to respond to these latest incidents. Nagorno-Karabakh's de facto parliament issued a statement demanding that Yerevan stop negotiations until a complete ceasefire can be established. However, Armenia's parliament speaker Alen Simonyan advises against making hasty statements and emphasizes the importance of the negotiations.
Since June 15, Nagorno-Karabakh has been cut off from the outside world due to Azerbaijan closing its checkpoint on the Armenian border to all traffic following a shooting incident. The region has been under blockade since December 12, 2021, although limited supplies and emergency patients could be brought in and transported out until June 15, thanks to the efforts of the Russian peacekeepers and the International Committee of the Red Cross.
In the broader context, the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan face several difficult challenges, including territorial disputes, constitutional issues, matters of refugees and missing persons, and border concerns. Despite some progress in drafting a peace treaty and addressing humanitarian issues, these substantial obstacles relating to territorial claims, constitutional adjustments, and border management persistently hinder the negotiation process.
- The escalating tension in Nagorno-Karabakh, as evidenced by the deadly incident on June 28 and previous claims of ceasefire violations, represents a significant development in the political news agenda, particularly in relation to the broader dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
- Amidst the ongoing negotiations for a comprehensive peace agreement, the latest news from Nagorno-Karabakh suggests that the general-news landscape is dominated by reports of both sides trading accusations, with each side denying the other's allegations of provocation or illegal actions.
