Skepticism Surrounding Google Trends in German Security Circles: A Closer Look at ZDF's Russia Link Claim
Intelligence agents interrogate ZDF's claims about Russia's participation in assaults
In a latest twist, German security forces have expressed skepticism towards a ZDF report insinuating a potential Russian link to Islamist attacks pre-empting Germany's elections, casting doubt on the validity of data from Google Trends. As reported by Reuters, a representative from the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) hinted that the data from Google Trends could be unreliable and improperly utilized, stating "The results from Google Trends are not suitable and also not validly usable for the presented analysis and evaluation methods."
The ZDF, in a "Terra X History" piece, collaborated with internet profiler Steven Broschart to investigate suspicious search queries from Russia preceding Islamist attacks. By analyzing data from the Google Trends service, they discovered search queries related to a "terror attack in Mannheim" four days prior to the incident.
Last year's elections in Europe and various state elections across Germany, as well as the federal election in February, were marred by several Islamist-motivated attacks. These attacks were often attributed to the surge in support for the far-right political party, Alternative for Germany (AfD).
However, the validity of the research conducted by ZDF has been called into question by security authorities due to the unreliable nature of Google Trends trend analysis. The analysis does not account for the actual number of searches made in a specific region at a particular time but instead relies on samples and calculated probabilities. As the BND spokesperson stated, "Not necessarily the exact entered terms are examined, but also word stems or even individual words of the query."
A key issue with low search volumes is the creation of artifacts due to the algorithms not being designed for this specific use. This alleged correlation between the artifacts and a Russia link can be reproduced for numerous other countries, thereby raising doubts on the plausibility of assigning a Russia link specifically. Another concern lies with the lack of reliable account for the use of anonymizing VPNs by Google Trends. This makes it challenging or impossible to draw credible conclusions regarding the user's actual location, as suggested in relation to the suspected Russia link.
Enrichment:It's not uncommon for Google Trends to be used to analyze public interest in a variety of topics, including cybersecurity, by tracking search volumes and patterns. However, its reliability for precise security analysis may be context-dependent. For instance, when German security forces consider using Google Trends for security-related purposes, they might assess its effectiveness alongside other tools and methodologies.
Google, on its part, is proactively working to advance cybersecurity capabilities, having launched initiatives such as the Cybersecurity Forecast 2025 and new AI-driven tools for security operations[1][2]. These advancements could potentially influence or complement how data like Google Trends is employed in security analyses.
[1] Google cybersecurity forecast 2025: https://www.google.com/security/research/research-initiatives/predictions/2025-predictions/
[2] Google’s AI-driven tools for security operations: https://www.darkreading.com/ai/Google-unveils-AI-driven-tools-for-security-operations/d/d-id/1337536
- The skepticism among German security forces towards relying on Google Trends data for security analysis is highlighted by the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), who deem it unreliable and inappropriate for the presented analysis and evaluation methods.
- In the "Terra X History" piece, ZDF, in collaboration with internet profiler Steven Broschart, used Google Trends data to investigate potential suspicious search queries from Russia preceding Islamist attacks, discovering a query about a "terror attack in Mannheim" four days prior to the incident.
- As the ZDF's research has been questioned by security authorities, a key concern lies with the unreliability of Google Trends trend analysis, as it does not account for specific search volumes in a region at a particular time, but instead samples and calculates probabilities.
