Highly-Educated Migrants Pondering Exit Could Wreak Havoc on Germany's Economy
Intellectual immigrants ponder international relocation decision.
The looming skills shortage in several industries across Germany continues to worsen, and the situation is even more bleak when you consider that a significant number of well-educated migrants are contemplating a move away from the country. According to a survey conducted by the Institute for Employment Research, this trend especially affects economically prosperous and German-speaking migrants, a demographic that the country desperately needs to address its skilled workforce shortage.
Migration researcher Katia Gallegos Torres from IAB, speaking on the research, pointed out that the very people Germany needs to secure the much-needed skilled workers are the ones contemplating leaving. Industries such as IT, finance, insurance services, and others in the knowledge-intensive service industries are hit the hardest by this trend, with between 30 to 39 percent of surveyed migrants considering a departure. Torres aptly calls it a risk given the ongoing skills shortages.
Around 26 percent of the surveyed migrants admitted to having thought about leaving, while a majority, 57 percent, expressed their desire to remain in Germany permanently. However, only 3 percent have concrete plans for emigration. Dissatisfaction with politics, personal reasons, the tax burden, and red tape were the primary factors driving the migration intentions.
In addition to the healthcare and social services sectors, similar trends are also seen in manufacturing, logistics, and warehousing. Switzerland, the USA, and Spain top the list of preferred destinations for migrants contemplating further migration.
The online survey of around 50,000 migrants took place between December 2024 and April 2025. The authors emphasized that the results provide a representative picture.
Implications
The potential consequences of well-educated migrants considering emigration, especially amidst Germany's persisting skills shortage, are far-reaching and multifaceted:
- Exacerbated Skills and Labor Shortages: Germany is already grappling with acute labor shortages in sectors like healthcare, IT, engineering, and construction, and these shortages would only worsen if well-educated migrants leave. The result would be unfilled positions and added strain on the economy.
- Reduced International Competitiveness: The exit of skilled professionals would make it harder for German companies to compete globally, potentially forcing them to outsource jobs or relocate operations.
- Increased Pressure on Public Services: Persistent shortages in healthcare and education would put additional strain on public services, impacting quality and access.
- Higher Job Vacancy Rates: As the number of skilled workers leaving increases, job vacancies in sectors already battling labor shortages would escalate, further complicating the recruitment process.
- Increased Recruitment Costs: Employers would face higher costs to attract and retain talent, including offering better pay, benefits, or relocation incentives.
- Reduced Demographic Stability: Germany's aging population and declining birth rates make the country reliant on migration for demographic balance. If skilled migrants leave, demographic imbalance would accelerate, which could result in increased dependency ratios.
- Potential Social Tension: If skilled migrants depart due to dissatisfaction or lack of opportunities, social tensions may surface, particularly if economic decline becomes a widespread perception.
- Political Shifts: Persistent labor shortages and economic stagnation may fuel calls for more restrictive or overly permissive immigration policies, depending on prevailing political trends and public opinion.
- Loss of Innovation Capacity: Skilled migrants contribute significantly to innovation, especially in STEM fields. Their departure could slow technological advancement and research output in Germany.
- Difficulty Reversing the Trend: Once skilled workers leave, it becomes challenging to attract and retain them, particularly as competing countries offer compelling opportunities and quality of life.
- The ongoing skills shortage in sectors such as healthcare, IT, engineering, and construction could worsen if well-educated migrants decide to emigrate, due to the high percentage of surveyed migrants in these industries considering a departure.
- The trend of well-educated migrants contemplating leaving Germany is a concern in the political arena, as it could potentially lead to increased pressure on public services, higher job vacancy rates, and a loss of innovation capacity, impacting the country's international competitiveness.
