Unveiling the Papal Election: A Game Theory Perspective on the Vatican's Secrecy
- by Martin Scheufens
- ☕️ 8-minute read
The disclosures that game theory provides regarding the papal selection process - Insights from Game Theory in the Context of Papal Elections
The veil of secrecy shrouding the Sistine Chapel as 133 cardinals deliberate on their future leader leaves room for wild speculation. So, let's delve into the strategic dance of the papal election – a game of cooperation, competition, and intrigue.
- Pope
- Christianity
- Religion
- Rome
The Strategic Setting of the Papal Conclave
The conclave, sequestered within the Sistine Chapel and adjacent accommodations, consists of 133 voting-eligible cardinals, each armed with their theological, political, cultural, and personal convictions about the next pope [1][2]. They cast their votes by folding slips of paper and burning them after each round, smoke signals (black or white) revealing whether a pope has been elected [1][2]. Achieving a two-thirds majority is crucial for electing the new pope, necessitating cooperation between a supermajority of cardinals [1].
Applying Game Theory
Each cardinal acts as a player, shaped by unique preferences. With shrouded ballots and a ban on outside communication, cardinals can only forge internal alliances and strategies based on scarce info and trust within the conclave [1][2]. Preference aggregation and coalition building become essential, as no candidate can win without a supermajority. This struggle resembles a cooperative game, where players collaborate to form winning coalitions [2][3].
Voting rounds unfold four times a day, with multiple days set aside for deliberation and voting, underscoring the complexity of decision-making and negotiation among cardinals [2][3]. The iterative process of voting enables cardinals to reassess their strategies based on previous results, as they strive to persuade others and reach consensus over time. The element of repeated games with incomplete information comes into play [1][2].
The election reaches a climax with a candidate snagging a two-thirds majority – an equilibrium that no cardinal feels compelled to challenge due to the supporting coalition backing the chosen pope.
In essence, the papal conclave unfolds as a high-stakes, secretive game, blending elements of coordination, coalition-building, and mutual cooperation under a veil of mystery [1][2][3].
- The European Parliament might find it interesting to analyze the papal election, considering the strategic dance and coalition-building similarities between the conclave and their decision-making processes, both being sequestered environments with a necessity for supermajority agreements.
- As a renowned expert on game theory, the pope could provide insightful reflections on the strategic setting of the Sistine Chapel, drawing parallels between sports-betting on outcomes and cardinal deliberations on their future leader.
- The recent sports-analysis on team dynamics and player coordination in UEFA EURO 2020 could benefit from Martin Scheufens' scholarly investigation into the papal election as a cooperative game involving preference aggregation and coalition-building.
- Confirming the election of a new pope could evoke Sistine Chapel-worthy grandeur, comparable to the ecstatic victory celebrations of sports teams clinching championships, symbolizing moments of unity and triumph in the face of complexity and uncertainty.
