Influence of Chinese Authoritarianism in EU's Surrounding Regions: Exploring Boundaries of Autocratic Expansion
The working paper, released recently, delves into the complexities of China's political influence in the European Union's Southern and Eastern Neighbourhoods from 2010 to 2024. The study, which includes analysis of four cases in the Southern Neighbourhood affected by the 2011 Arab uprisings and three cases in the Eastern Neighbourhood linked to the Colour Revolutions, suggests that China's actions are shaped by a variety of factors, including economic, political, and geopolitical considerations.
The study assesses whether China has contributed to democratisation or authoritarianisation processes. Contrary to some assumptions, the analysis finds that China's approach to political developments is pragmatic and case-by-case, prioritising stability and continuity over ideological alignment. However, the study also reveals that China's primary challenge to democratisation efforts lies in legitimising authoritarian alternatives through its development model and contesting liberal democratic norms within international discourse.
In the Southern Neighbourhood, countries affected by the 2011 Arab uprisings, China's political influence is complex and multifaceted. The study suggests that China's actions are tailored to the specific context of each country, with the primary tools for political influence being official discourse, UN Security Council veto power, and economic engagement. In Syria, China's UN vetoes constituted a significant example of autocracy support, motivated by broader sovereignty concerns and regime change precedents rather than specific support for the al-Assad regime.
Moving to the Eastern Neighbourhood, Serbia in the Eastern Neighbourhood was the country most strongly influenced by the People's Republic of China through economic participation. Between 2010 and 2024, China was Serbia's largest single investor at 7.2 billion euros and a trade volume is expected to reach about 8.5 billion euros in 2024. Other Eastern Neighbourhood countries are part of broader regional trade agreements with China, such as the ASEAN+3 free trade zone established in 2010, involving Southeast Asian countries but none matching Serbia's scale of direct Chinese investment during this period.
In the Eastern Neighbourhood countries linked to the Colour Revolutions, China's political influence is also complex and nuanced, with the study suggesting that China's actions are influenced by the specific political and economic conditions of each country. Substantial material support for autocratic survival remains limited, with Syria's civil war being the main exception where China's UN vetoes constituted a significant example of autocracy support.
The study challenges the assumption that China is a systematic promoter of autocracy, instead finding that its actions are driven by a mix of economic, political, and geopolitical considerations. These tools are used to protect commercial interests, international status, and geopolitical considerations rather than to explicitly advance authoritarian agendas. The study concludes that China adopts a pragmatic, case-by-case approach to political developments, prioritising stability and continuity over ideological alignment.
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