Influence of China in EU's surrounding regions (southern and eastern): the boundaries of authoritarian expansion
In a recent working paper, the role of China in political shifts within the European Union's Southern and Eastern Neighbourhoods has been scrutinised, challenging common assumptions about China as a systematic promoter of autocracy.
The study, which evaluated political developments between 2010 and 2024, found that China adopts a pragmatic, case-by-case approach rather than actively advancing authoritarian agendas. This approach is evident in four cases impacted by the 2011 Arab uprisings in the Southern Neighbourhood (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Syria) and three cases in the Eastern Neighbourhood (Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia).
China's primary objective, according to the research, is to favour stability and continuity over ideological alignment. Substantial material support for autocratic survival remains scarce, with Syria's civil war being the main exception. Instead, China uses its key tools, including official discourse, UN Security Council veto power, and economic engagement, to safeguard commercial interests, international status, and geopolitical considerations.
In the case of Syria, China's UN vetoes constituted a significant instance of autocracy support. However, this support was driven by broader sovereignty concerns and regime change precedents rather than specific backing for the al-Assad regime.
In the Eastern Neighbourhood, Serbia and Ukraine were affected by China's pragmatic, case-based analysis. Both countries have a connection to the Color Revolutions, a series of pro-democracy protests and revolts in the early 2000s. China's approach towards these political developments has been instrumental in shaping the region's political landscape.
The study concludes that China's primary obstacle to democratisation efforts lies not in active autocracy promotion, but in legitimising authoritarian alternatives through its development model and contesting liberal democratic norms within international discourse. This finding underscores the complexity of China's role in global politics and the need for a nuanced understanding of its actions.
In summary, the working paper provides valuable insights into China's role in political shifts in Europe's neighbourhoods. It challenges the simplistic view of China as a systematic promoter of autocracy and highlights the importance of understanding China's pragmatic, case-by-case approach to political developments.
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