Influence of China in EU's Southern and Eastern Regions: Exploring the Boundaries of Autocratic Expansion
In a groundbreaking working paper, author Torsten Pflugmacher challenges the long-held belief that China systematically promotes autocracy in the EU's Southern and Eastern Neighbourhoods. The paper, which analyses political developments from 2010 to 2024, examines seven cases in total – four from the Southern Neighbourhood affected by the 2011 Arab uprisings and three from the Eastern Neighbourhood.
Contrary to popular belief, the study finds that China adopts a pragmatic, case-by-case approach to political developments. Rather than using its primary tools for political influence – official discourse, UN Security Council veto power, and economic engagement – to explicitly advance authoritarian agendas, these tools are used to protect commercial interests, international status, and geopolitical considerations.
The study challenges the assumption that China is a systematic promoter of autocracy, instead finding that substantial material support for autocratic survival remains limited. Syria's civil war, where China's UN vetoes constituted significant autocracy support, is the main exception.
The paper's findings suggest that China's primary challenge to democratisation efforts lies in legitimizing authoritarian alternatives through its development model and contesting liberal democratic norms within international discourse. This is a significant shift from the previously held belief that China's political influence was primarily used to support autocratic regimes.
The study's conclusion is a call for a more nuanced understanding of China's role in political developments across the EU's neighbourhoods. It highlights the need to move beyond simplistic assumptions and to consider China's actions in the context of its commercial, political, and geostrategic interests.
In conclusion, the working paper provides valuable insights into China's role in political developments across the EU's Southern and Eastern Neighbourhoods. It challenges the assumption that China is a systematic promoter of autocracy and instead suggests a more pragmatic, case-by-case approach. The study serves as a reminder that understanding China's actions requires a nuanced understanding of its interests and motivations.
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