Influence of Autocracy in China's Surrounding EU Regions: Exploring Boundaries
In a recent working paper, a team of authors led by Baron, J., Larouche, P., Contreras, J., Thum, N., and Husovec, M., delve into China's influence on political developments across the European Union's Southern and Eastern Neighborhoods between 2010 and 2024.
Contrary to popular belief, the study challenges the assumption that China is a systematic promoter of autocracy. Instead, it assesses whether Beijing has contributed to processes of democratisation or authoritarianisation.
The authors find that China prioritises stability and continuity over ideological alignment. The country's primary tools - official discourse, UN Security Council veto power, and economic engagement - are used to protect commercial interests, international status, and geopolitical considerations.
The analysis covers four cases in the Southern Neighborhood affected by the 2011 Arab uprisings and three cases in the Eastern Neighborhood, two of them linked to the Colour Revolutions. In these cases, China adopts a pragmatic, case-by-case approach to political developments.
While substantial material support for autocratic survival remains limited, the study notes an exception in Syria's civil war, where China's UN vetoes constituted a significant example of autocracy support, motivated by broader sovereignty concerns and regime change precedents.
The study concludes that China's primary challenge to democratisation efforts lies in legitimising authoritarian alternatives through its development model and contesting liberal democratic norms within international discourse. The authors argue that China's role in political developments is complex and multifaceted, challenging traditional assumptions about the country's political influence.
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