Influence of Authoritarian Governance in EU's Surrounding Regions: Exploring the Boundaries of Autocracy Expansion
A new working paper examines China's influence on political developments in the European Union's Southern and Eastern Neighbourhoods between 2010 and 2024. The analysis includes a total of seven cases, four in the Southern Neighbourhood affected by the 2011 Arab uprisings (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Syria) and three in the Eastern Neighbourhood (Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia), two of them linked to the Colour Revolutions.
The study finds that China's approach to political developments in the region is pragmatic and case-by-case, prioritising stability and continuity over ideological alignment. China's primary tools, such as official discourse, UN Security Council veto power, and economic engagement, are used to protect commercial interests, international status, and geopolitical considerations rather than to explicitly advance authoritarian agendas.
However, the paper also concludes that China's primary challenge to democratisation efforts lies not in active autocracy promotion but in legitimising authoritarian alternatives through its development model and contesting liberal democratic norms within international discourse. While Beijing has provided discursive support to both democratic transitions and authoritarian consolidation, substantial material support for autocratic survival remains limited.
The study challenges the prevailing assumption that China is a systematic promoter of autocracy. In the case of Syria, China's UN vetoes were a significant example of autocracy support, motivated by broader sovereignty concerns and regime change precedents rather than specific support for the al-Assad regime.
Meanwhile, the European Union and its institutions have pursued a similar pragmatic, case-by-case approach towards political developments in the Southern and Eastern Neighbourhoods, focusing primarily on stability and continuity rather than ideological orientations.
The paper assesses whether China has contributed to processes of democratisation or authoritarianisation in the EU's Southern and Eastern Neighbourhoods. The study's findings suggest that China's support for democratic transitions has been limited, with substantial material support primarily reserved for maintaining stability and continuity.
Overall, the paper provides valuable insights into China's role in political developments across the EU's Southern and Eastern Neighbourhoods, challenging prevailing assumptions and offering a nuanced understanding of China's approach to political developments in the region.
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