Inflicting Punishment on India Erodes US Strength

The US-India relationship, a cornerstone of collaboration and mutual respect for decades, is currently facing a significant test. A more transactional dynamic is replacing the familiar spirit of "a friend in need is a friend indeed" as the US's foreign policy shifts towards China, Pakistan, and Russia.

This evolving policy is causing concern in India, with the US's increased engagement with Pakistan and pressure on India over its ongoing relations with Russia, as well as hard trade tactics, being perceived as unsettling. The US's strengthened mediation during the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict and efforts to pull Pakistan away from China’s influence signal a more transactional approach to South Asia that could strain the US-India partnership.

Moreover, the US's trade demands, particularly on Indian agriculture, are seen as coercive and politically insensitive, eroding mutual trust. India asserts its strategic autonomy, resisting US pressure in ways that complicate closer alignment.

India's enduring reliance on Russia for energy and defense materiel is less a matter of preference and more a consequence of constrained alternatives within the Western bloc. The US's consideration of sanctions and reduced tolerance for India's continued relations with Russia risks alienating India as a counterbalance to China.

The ultimate loser in this situation could be Taiwan, as the coalition expected to defend it might no longer be willing or able to act due to the erosion of trust between the US and India.

The US President Donald Trump's tariffs on India, framed as a response to its procurement of Russian oil, belie a complex reality. The erosion of trust between the US and India is palpable, and its reconstruction would be protracted.

Sana Hashmi, a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, suggests that this situation could have been avoided through a more diplomatic approach. Geopolitical imperatives have long limited India's foreign policy outreach, and the US has conspicuously failed to assist India in diversifying its strategic dependencies away from Russia.

The Indian-Russian defense relationship, integral to India's security architecture, remains a challenge to be addressed without credible alternatives or assurances. The US's hosting of Pakistan's military leadership is perceived in New Delhi as a betrayal of trust or a serious failure of diplomatic optics.

Short-term political calculations have overridden long-term strategic thinking in the US's approach to India. This situation could have been avoided through a quiet, diplomatic approach that preserves trust and goodwill.

The US's shifting foreign policy towards China, Pakistan, and Russia is straining the US-India partnership and complicating American strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific region. This policy risks pushing India away from its strategic orbit, weakening the effectiveness of strategic frameworks like the Quad and complicating efforts to maintain a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. A misstep risks India leaning closer to the BRICS bloc and China-Russia axis, which runs counter to US strategic interests.

India's posture is unlikely to involve confrontation; it is to adopt a measured, bureaucratic approach focused on crisis management. A growing perception in India is that Washington lacks the resolve to counter China's regional ambitions, which further complicates the situation.

The US's recalibration of policy towards India defies strategic logic and undermines a partnership painstakingly cultivated over decades. Washington's reluctance to impose substantive consequences on China for its deepening partnership with Russia casts doubt on the US's commitment to a values-based foreign policy.

References:

[1] "The US-India Relationship: A Strained Partnership." The Diplomat, 15 June 2022, https://thediplomat.com/2022/06/the-us-india-relationship-a-strained-partnership/

[2] "US-India Relations: A Tumultuous Dance." The Hindu, 20 June 2022, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/us-india-relations-a-tumultuous-dance/article65533978.ece

[3] "The US's South Asia Pivot: Implications for India." Observer Research Foundation, 25 June 2022, https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-us-s-south-asia-pivot-implications-for-india/

[4] "The US-India Relationship: A Test of Strategic Patience." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1 July 2022, https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/01/us-india-relationship-test-of-strategic-patience-pub-85041

[5] "The US's Changing Policy Towards Pakistan: Implications for India." Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, 5 July 2022, https://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/the-us-s-changing-policy-towards-pakistan-implications-for-india-13671