India's count of inhabitants has surpassed 1.5 billion people.
India and China, the two most populous countries on the planet, are currently experiencing a significant demographic shift, according to a new report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and other sources.
As of 2025, India is projected to have around 1.4639 billion people, overtaking China's population of approximately 1.4161 billion, marking a historic turning point. India's population is expected to reach a peak of around 1.7 billion in the next few decades, after which it is predicted to begin a gradual decline, roughly around 40 years later.
Looking back, in 1960, India's population was approximately 436 million, with around six children per woman, on average. Contrastingly, recent reports suggest that China's population has decreased, with an estimated 1.408 billion as of January 2024, according to the Wall Street Journal. This decline might lead to economic and demographic strain for China by 2035.
The UNFPA report sheds light on the decreasing Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in India, which has dipped below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 births per woman. This decline signifies that India is moving towards population stabilization and eventual decline. Although inequalities persist in fertility rates across various segments of Indian society, this lower TFR reflects a "real fertility crisis," where people struggle to exercise their reproductive choices freely and knowledgeably.
The demographic changes in both countries bring about various challenges. While India now boasts a substantial working-age population, expected to peak at around 70% in the coming years, the subsequent decline suggests potential issues like strain on healthcare and social security systems, higher dependency ratios, and potential labor shortages as the population ages. To manage these shifts effectively, policy attention should focus on reproductive health, gender equality, and enabling individuals to make informed decisions regarding family planning.
In summary, the UNFPA and other international sources project India’s population to continue growing until around mid-century before starting to decline, driven by a TFR below the replacement level. China’s population is already smaller and stabilizing or declining. These evolving demographic trends necessitate policies supporting reproductive rights and equitable access to healthcare to navigate these transitions successfully while overcoming inequalities in fertility rates and access to reproductive health services across regions and socio-economic groups.
- The shift in population trends between India and China, as highlighted in the UNFPA report, is not just a general-news topic but also has profound implications for the politics of both countries, particularly concerning workforce dynamics, healthcare, and social security systems.
- As India overtakes China in population size, politics will play a crucial role in addressing the resulting challenges, such as labor shortages, potential strains on healthcare and social security systems, and higher dependency ratios, by focusing on reproductive health, gender equality, and supporting informed family planning decisions.
