India threatened with potential war if they proceed with construction on Indus River projects, according to Bilawal Bhutto's stern warning. Indus River dams construction could lead to armed conflict, Bhutto stated. [VIDEO]
India-Pakistan Tensions Escalate Over Indus Waters Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan, signed in 1960 to regulate the sharing of water from six rivers, is currently in abeyance but not formally ended. The latest development comes after India suspended the treaty in April 2025, following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam linked to Pakistan-based militants.
India's Suspension and Rationale
India's decision to put the treaty on hold was based on continued Pakistan-sponsored cross-border terrorism, viewed as a breach of trust incompatible with water cooperation. India argues that the treaty is outdated, given new realities like upstream projects by China and Nepal affecting water flows, along with increased security threats. India sees the suspension as a strategic move to force Pakistan to renegotiate and modify the treaty terms rather than a complete abrogation.
Legal and Institutional Responses
In June 2025, the Permanent Court of Arbitration issued a "supplemental award" reaffirming its jurisdiction and ruling that the treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended by India. India rejected this ruling, calling the court illegal and its awards void.
Pakistan’s Position and Threats
Pakistan has criticized India's suspension and has issued war threats in response, especially as India advances hydroelectric projects on the Chenab river that Pakistan views as violations of the treaty. However, reports indicate Pakistan is signaling some willingness for "normal neighbourly relations" despite tensions.
Impact and Significance
The treaty has been vital to Pakistan's agriculture and economy, irrigating 80% of its cultivated land and supporting nearly a quarter of its GDP. Suspension threatens Pakistan's water security profoundly. Meanwhile, India faces challenges from Chinese upstream dam-building with no binding water treaty, adding complexity to the regional water scenario.
Recent Escalations
The hostilities between India and Pakistan reached a four-day cross-border conflict following India's launch of "Operation Sindoor." During this conflict, India is said to have pounded several air bases in Pakistan, delivering a severe blow to Islamabad Army's capability, while successfully repelling missile and drone attacks.
Ex-Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari made war threats against India regarding the Indus Waters Treaty, threatening that if India were to launch an attack like Sindoor, Pakistan would be prepared to fight back and India would surely lose. Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir reportedly threatened to start a nuclear war during a function in the United States.
Bhutto promised that Pakistan "will never bow down" and claimed Pakistan is strong enough for war to recover all six rivers. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in New Delhi strongly condemned Pakistan's nuclear threats, while Indian officials pointed out that the Pakistani army is "hand-in-glove" with terrorist organizations.
Future Uncertainty
Both sides face heightened challenges from security, climate, population growth, and upstream developments, making the treaty’s future uncertain. The current situation underscores the need for peaceful dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the dispute and ensure the security and prosperity of both nations.
[1] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-puts-indus-waters-treaty-on-hold-after-pahalgam-terror-attack/article64055420.ece [2] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/india-rejects-arbitration-court-ruling-on-indus-waters-treaty/article64142688.ece [3] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-pakistan-relations-at-a-low-point-over-indus-waters-treaty/article64142686.ece [4] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistan-faces-water-crisis-as-indus-waters-treaty-remains-suspended/article64142687.ece [5] https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/pakistan-says-india-violating-indus-waters-treaty-over-chenab-river-project/article64142685.ece
- The escalating tensions between India and Pakistan have expanded beyond the Indus Waters Treaty to encompass various aspects of their relationship, including politics, general news, and crime and justice, as recent threats of war and nuclear threats have been exchanged.
- Meanwhile, the ongoing suspensions and disagreements over the Indus Waters Treaty have coincided with developments in sports, with India's "Operation Sindoor" leading to a four-day cross-border conflict, demonstrating the complex interplay of war-and-conflicts, politics, and regional security in South Asia.
